osfan24 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Philly complex of storms looks to finally be weakening a bit and pushing slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: CU field is pretty crappy Agreed. Nothing going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CU field is pretty crappy Hardly a CU field at all here as well, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 really need some patience. The CAMs were not forecasting an early show here. It will take time for the PA/NJ complex outflow to surge west and southwest, with development building along it back into northeast MD. There is still a legit question of whether there will be decent coverage in the DC/Baltimore corridor, but IF it happens, it won't be for several hours (and could even be an evening show). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 SPC had the SVR watch until 11pm. Plenty of time for storms to initiate especially north and east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Decent outflow boundary on Mt Holly radar moving SW towards N DE. Lets see how this evolves over the next hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 With the impressive SBCAPE, cold pool/outflow action should easily initiate new storm development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Radar showing 2 outflow boundaries heading towards each other over the DE bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 One thing that is "concerning" is the tendency for the storm motions around the initial Philly complex to move more SE than SW. With such weak flow, and localized boundaries, I really dont trust the CAM's skill in accurately depicting where new convection will fire. IMO they struggle when the forcing mechanisms are weak/subtle, and steering currents are light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 The HRRR just went from giving my yard 2-2.5" for multiple runs, to about 0.3" at 19z. Now that is much more believable lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Latest HRRR looks a lot more interesting for 95 to the bay tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Latest HRRR looks a lot more interesting for 95 to the bay tonight. 18z 3km NAM looks fun from about your area points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 The CU field is mentioned in the latest mesoscale discussion. SPC thinks that the area of CU running from the DC area up to SEPA may be a corridor for new development. Also mentions the surging outflow from the storms to the north and east. On visible sat, the field in general looks a little more agitated now. The outflow is clearly visible on the satellite images as it is just barely into the NEern tip of Maryland and into Delaware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 looking out my window here in Howard County, it looks like the atmosphere is trying to initiate locally 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 something slowly going up N of McLean. Looks like something might be popping up over Mount Rainer too. Let’s see if these can take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 1 minute ago, high risk said: looking out my window here in Howard County, it looks like the atmosphere is trying to initiate locally Agreed. Seeing some towers trying to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Yea 3k is a deluge many areas east of Baltimore and whole east side of the bay . Sprinkler back in storage for you my friend. Remains to be seen. Either way, I am probably going to chase if a severe cell with a wicked hail core develops within a few miles of here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Lot of new CU popping to my north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Looks like there may be 2 main areas of development: DC - SEPA, and the eastern shore into Delaware as there's two OFBs about to collide over the DE Bay as mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 It's pretty cloud filled here in Colesville, MD. Some light returns are starting to show up on radar locally as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Starting to look like we have legit initiation around the Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Philly outflow is what's kicking up the stuff in NE MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 6, 2020 Author Share Posted July 6, 2020 This stuff forming around DC, if it's not relatively intense - may preclude a stronger threat later due to cooling of the air from rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Raining, so that’s good. But I can already see the sun coming out, so this one is short-lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 About to get smoked in northern DE. Constant thunder now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 So close. Can see the cells to my south and hear occasional thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Raining, so that’s good. But I can already see the sun coming out, so this one is short-lived.This first storm was not for us... though I’m enjoying the distance rumbles of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 All that this OFB is doing so far is producing broken up clouds that never make it to storm status and just fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 Looks like an "east of 295" threat so far. Can hear thunder rumbling in the distance. Will be interesting to see how this evolves. Pretty big storms blowing up to the southeast and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted July 6, 2020 Share Posted July 6, 2020 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So close. Can see the cells to my south and hear occasional thunder Teasing sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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