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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

HRRR is pretty darn similar with regards to sim reflectivity. 

Somebody EAST of a line running from like Shrewsbury, PA to Largo, MD is going to get a nice storm this afternoon. NAM nest even has a really good stripe of UD helicity along the MD/DE border. 

argh, can we include me in that? need the rain. i'm 10 min south of Shrewsbury. 

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Severe thunderstorm watch

 

re Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2020

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

VAC001-003-013-033-047-057-059-061-065-079-099-103-107-109-113-
125-133-137-153-157-159-177-179-193-510-540-600-610-630-683-685-
070300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0333.200706T1735Z-200707T0300Z/

VA
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK             ALBEMARLE           ARLINGTON
CAROLINE             CULPEPER            ESSEX
FAIRFAX              FAUQUIER            FLUVANNA
GREENE               KING GEORGE         LANCASTER
LOUDOUN              LOUISA              MADISON
NELSON               NORTHUMBERLAND      ORANGE
PRINCE WILLIAM       RAPPAHANNOCK        RICHMOND
SPOTSYLVANIA         STAFFORD            WESTMORELAND


VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           CHARLOTTESVILLE     FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH         FREDERICKSBURG      MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK
$$

 

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No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today.    For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west.     It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon.  (HRRR is most aggressive.)     Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay.

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20 minutes ago, high risk said:

No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today.    For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west.     It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon.  (HRRR is most aggressive.)     Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay.

Seems both the NAM nest and the HRRR (even with any dew mixing) keep areas at least a bit inland (west) from the bay in the game. Annapolis might still be a good place for storms. Definitely will be a nowcast type of event. 

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Painful watching that huge blob just sit and explode over Philly. Wonder if some localized areas make a run at double-digit rainfall total up there.

Grew up in Philly. Big urban watersheds that flash quickly and have killed folks swimming in the creeks or fishing. The spike on discharge in Frankford Creek right now is something you only see during tropical storms.

frankfordcreekatphila.png.30dba9ed43be2a56b1e377dde4413177.png

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I think we have to hope that the outflow from the Philly activity can join up with some of the boundaries like the bay breeze and such around us to trigger stuff. Dews have some down at some stations in the area - still high along the bay. 

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1 hour ago, high risk said:

No doubt that the eastern shore is the best place to be for organized SVR later today.    For those west of the bay, we need the outflow to surge further west.     It's worth noting that both the NAM nest and HRRR don't have too many storms in the DC area, as they both mix out the dew points a bit this afternoon.  (HRRR is most aggressive.)     Some of the other CAMs (the ARW2 of particular note) do not mix out the low-level moisture as much, as they have more coverage of storms west of the bay.

I'm not buying the HRRR mix out.

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think we have to hope that the outflow from the Philly activity can join up with some of the boundaries like the bay breeze and such around us to trigger stuff. Dews have some down at some stations in the area - still high along the bay. 

yeah, not sure there is enough of a trigger without a boundary to help. 

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