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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Day 2 on the 0z CIPS guidance. Doubtful the result will match how robust this looks. 

 

          Agreed, although tomorrow is interesting, because while the deep layer shear is still weak, there is a fair amount of low level shear.    Instability is no worry, and there will be a good trigger, so I think it's worth watching.

           I'm a bit surprised by the MRGL today.     Shear is really, really sad, and even the approaching MCV won't boost the mid-level flow much at all.     That said, storms will become fairly organized with the approaching lift, and organization always yields the potential for some coldpool development, so a few wind events likely can't be ruled out.

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10 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Seems tomorrow and Tuesday could have some iso instances of severe. 

Also - I'm late to the party but it looks like the HRRRv4 is no more. It hasn't been sending data from NCEP - I noticed it on the COD site. Does this mean they'll bring back the v3? Or is v3 the operational?

I think the HRRRv4 is going to be transitioning to the operational HRRR soon.

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

That's good to hear. I had seen some chatter on Twitter about NCEP declaring it "unstable" and "freezing development"

 

1 hour ago, high risk said:

         nope.     likely delayed until late fall.     The recent problems, however, explain why no data is currently available.

Ah, crud.  I was going off the AMS presentation from January and the website which still has June 30th-early July.

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17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

Ah, crud.  I was going off the AMS presentation from January and the website which still has June 30th-early July.

       Yeah, documentation needs to be updated, and nothing is finalized yet until it can be demonstrated that it's stable, but it's not going to be implemented any time soon.

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31 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Seems like we are getting the split right now. Nice storms to the west and then a nice cluster near Richmond.

Yeah, I’m personally not expecting much over here in the Dundalk area but we’ll see. The Leesburg-Frederick-Westminster corridor looks pretty prime though right now 

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6 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, I’m personally not expecting much over here in the Dundalk area but we’ll see. The Leesburg-Frederick-Westminster corridor looks pretty prime though right now 

Trying to fill in around DC. Lots of warnings up right now for region for a marginal risk day.

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