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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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1 minute ago, high risk said:

     exactly.      the entire SVR season has been ridiculously tame almost everywhere.      there hasn't been a MDT for tornadoes since those April events in the southeast

Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? 

Total speculation, but wondering if  there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends  during the summer .  And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East.  

Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts.  

  

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2 hours ago, frd said:

Is there a correlation that when you have a very quiet severe weather season nationwide the ensuing summer is more normal temperature wise? 

Total speculation, but wondering if  there is anything useful to gain from this season so far in regards to predicting temperature trends  during the summer .  And that goes with saying maybe the real summer pattern has not even shown up yet in the East. But, some consensus indicates the summer will feature the highest heights in the West with more frequent troughs in the East.  

Always enjoy your severe weather thoughts.  

  

     Thank you.      I'm not aware of any correlation between the severe season and summer temperatures, but it's a great question.       Some severe seasons are tempered by all of the flow being displaced north into Canada which usually implies a hot pattern.    Some seasons like this one are tempered by anomalous blocking which kept a lot of people cool.     And we all know that patterns can quickly break down.

      Looking at some of the longer range forecasts, they are showing a big ridge over the central U.S. and more troughing in the east (as you noted).    This would imply fairly frequent frontal passages for us, with breaks in the heat, potential severe weather along the fronts, and maybe even some northwest flow severe events.      

 

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower.

 

It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however.

       A wind-driven MDT is certainly the type of event that might see the issuance of a PDS severe box.    Curious to see how this plays out, with severe storms well-established already in western Michigan during the morning.     The next box that gets issued out ahead of it might be PDS.

 

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3 minutes ago, high risk said:

       A wind-driven MDT is certainly the type of event that might see the issuance of a PDS severe box.    Curious to see how this plays out, with severe storms well-established already in western Michigan during the morning.     The next box that gets issued out ahead of it might be PDS.

 

PDS Blue Boxes are rare. I cannot recall the last time a High Risk was issues for wind or hail. It seems that so many of the High Risk area issued by SPC are for tornadoes, but the impacts from crop loss and power outages, etc. from wind and hail are nothing to sneeze at.

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15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

PDS Blue Boxes are rare. I cannot recall the last time a High Risk was issues for wind or hail. It seems that so many of the High Risk area issued by SPC are for tornadoes, but the impacts from crop loss and power outages, etc. from wind and hail are nothing to sneeze at.

6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate.

 

most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.

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4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I'm wondering if any surprise storms develop this afternoon, there is a healthy CU field and it looks like they're trying for vertical growth

Latest HRRR run has some decent looking storms coming through around 05z. 

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR run has some decent looking storms coming through around 05z. 

     yeah, it will be interesting to see whether it maintains this solution.     The NAM nest has been semi-consistent with an evening threat a couple of hours earlier.    The NSSL-WRF (ARW2) is the only model that has convection in the metro area before 00z.

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3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

 

I'm guessing that could be good because we might get the storms in before sunset?

Latest hrrr gets storms in around 9-10pm, which is the earliest I’ve seen. But I’m feeling pretty good for some action overnight given the radar look and mesos getting more bullish.

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Latest hrrr gets storms in around 9-10pm, which is the earliest I’ve seen. But I’m feeling pretty good for some action overnight given the radar look and mesos getting more bullish.

I’m pumped!  Maybe a good night for a Jebwalk in the rain...if I want to struck by lightning. :lol: I do once again love overnight storms. Soooooo soothing...

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