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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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19 minutes ago, high risk said:

and now the flash flood watch has been issued.      events like this show the huge challenges with hi-res, short-range modeling......

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503-504-VAZ026-027-029-030-038>040-051>055-501-
502-506-507-050800-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0004.200605T0251Z-200605T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Page-Warren-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier-
Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill,
Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs,
Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold,
Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg,
Silver Spring, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson,
New Market, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal,
Stanardsville, Madison, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas,
Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale,
Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria,
Falls Church, Falmouth, Warrenton, Turnbull, Leesburg, Ashburn,
Sterling, and Big Meadows
1051 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Maryland, The
  District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following
  areas, in central Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and
  Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Montgomery, and Prince
  Georges. The District of Columbia. In Virginia,
  Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun,
  Fairfax, Greene, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia
  Blue Ridge, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Rockingham,
  Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Stafford, and Warren.

* Until 4 AM EDT Friday

* Repeating rounds of showers and thunderstorms may produce
  localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches in a relatively
  short amount of time. This may cause rapid rises of water on
  streams and creeks and in urban and poor drainage areas.
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Seeing as it looked pretty hopeless for storms in Calvert County, I went up the road a bit, definitely worth it. Impressive lightning.
Apologies for the ugly banding artifacts, really need to get a DSLR camera.
 

 

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MRGL risk on new Day 1 for LWX CWA... 5% wind... disco below

  ...Middle Atlantic States...

   Storms will likely once again develop over the higher terrain and
   spread east through the Middle Atlantic states where moderate
   instability will reside. A pronounced MCV currently moving through
   KY will emerge across VA during peak heating, and may result in
   greater storm coverage and possibly slightly more favorable wind
   profiles for organized multicells. Primary threat will be locally
   strong to damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early
   evening.

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There must have been some cannonading going by somewhere close a few hours ago, but only flickers and some low rolls in Tenleytown. But like another poster noted, it's still nice to be woken up by a thunderstorm, even if you're being fringed, in the middle of the night. 

Curious thing is, I slept right through a big storm we had earlier this year, maybe in April. 

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9 hours ago, yoda said:

LWX LSR's reporting downed tree/large branch on house out your way


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
845 PM EDT THU JUN 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSE HILL               38.79N  77.11W
06/04/2020                   FAIRFAX            VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCH FELL ON HOUSE AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            WESSEX LANE AND KERRYBROOKE DR IN ROSE HILL, VA

 

yeah, saw that.  Winds at times were no joke.  Saw a bunch of other reports for road closures due to wires down and roads flooded.  Rained more overnight.

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Im very jealous of the heavy rain yall got. not sure we got much here overnight. Earlier evening storms missed us, literally to my north. watched the cell come in from the west, saw lots of scud and even some rotation, but nothing in terms of rain.

second batch came in around 9pm but it was quick moving and didn't rain on us much. no clue if we got anything else. 

just need rain!

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9 hours ago, AdamHLG said:

I am the probably the only forum member in Baltimore County that did not get a drop of rain or flash of lightning. Chestnut Ridge. This is day 2 of zip nada zilch zero. We did have a 6 mph gust so not all is lost. Talk about a snow hole jeez this is so much worse.

Going to go for the hat trick tomorrow.


.

ouch. i feel the pain on the rain, but at least i got lots of thunder, lightning and scud lol

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Im very jealous of the heavy rain yall got. not sure we got much here overnight. Earlier evening storms missed us, literally to my north. watched the cell come in from the west, saw lots of scud and even some rotation, but nothing in terms of rain.

second batch came in around 9pm but it was quick moving and didn't rain on us much. no clue if we got anything else. 

just need rain!

Yea Baltimore County has really been left high and dry of late.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea Baltimore County has really been left high and dry of late.

my weather station stops reporting overnight (really need to send it for repair) but looking around other Parkton stations, looks like we got some rain after 1am. ground is wet here this morning, but i figured it was just dew. so that's nice... but really could use more.

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I'm definitely down with the heavy rain threat later today.      I'm not as excited about SVR potential (not that yesterday's SVR was off the charts, but the watch was a good one, IMHO) due to the shear being even weaker today, but the forecasted soundings still have a bit of an inverted-V structure, suggesting that a few local microbursts are possible.     

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25 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

0.41” imby Thursday on east side of Columbia. Not great, but not a total miss either.  

How did we have 1” differences?? And usually the PWS in my neighborhood runs a little low I think.

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44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z 3k NAM and 13z hrrr both have nice storm complexes moving east at 20-21z which mostly fall apart when they hit the corn dust over the corridor

     The HRRR Is better than you think.    It's unfortunate that Tropical Tidbits shows only 1 km HRRR reflectivity, as the model rarely shows its best signals at that level.   Pivotal Weather shows composite reflectivity, which always looks much better.  (Composite will always be "hotter" than 1 km, but for the HRRR, it's usually a more realistic representation.)      The composite reflectivity in recent runs suggests a lot of outflow interactions with potential for multiple rounds of storms well into the evening again.   

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