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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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One last bit of development in Springfield/Franconia areas just to my west, at the end of the the main line trailing through the District right now. Just had a shower go through, hope to catch at least a rainbow on that last bit's passage overhead. We'll see. 81 degrees out, though...and still a little sticky out.

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Just now, vastateofmind said:

One last bit of development in Springfield/Franconia areas just to my west, at the end of the the main line trailing through the District right now. Just had a shower go through, hope to catch at least a rainbow on that last bit's passage overhead. We'll see. 81 degrees out, though...and still a little sticky out.

My kid wanted to go out and shoot hoops and before she got out the door that cell started raining here. Good call on the rainbow on the backside. Gonna have to look

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Just now, Mrs.J said:

Holy cow! Winds are insane behind that line. Had about 30 min of blue sky then clouds rolled in and stuff is blowing all over the place. Temp back up to 71 after going down to 68 when the storms came through. 

good to know. guess i should expect winds to pick up soon enough.

Just now, H2O said:

I dunno. Shelfies and whales mouth are top notch too. But who doesn’t like boob clouds?

agree. whales mouths are great too, but boob clouds! i'm so immature

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16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some mesonet gusts of 68 to 72 mph in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties...

Yeah, it appears that the Patapsco River was a delineation line of sorts. Husband on the Anne Arundel side of the Key Bridge said that they probably got about a 65 mph gust there. But on the Baltimore County side of the Key Bridge it was surprisingly weak.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Appears to be several eddies from Sudlersville, to Bridgetown on the eastern shore.  Any of them look good for a quick spin up.

Hah!

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Kent County in central Delaware...
  East central Queen Anne's County in northeastern Maryland...
  Northeastern Caroline County in eastern Maryland...

* Until 400 PM EDT.
    
* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Oakland, or 9 miles east of Centerville, moving
  east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dover, Harrington, Camden, Greensboro, Goldsboro, Woodside, Viola,
  Rising Sun-Lebanon, Rising Sun, Hazlettville, Dover Base Housing,
  Sandtown, Wyoming, Felton, Frederica, Houston, Magnolia, Henderson,
  Riverview and Highland Acres.

 

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Tornado warning

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Kent County in central Delaware...
  East central Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland...
  Northeastern Caroline County in eastern Maryland...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Oakland, or 9 miles east of Centerville, moving
  east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.
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11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Tornado warning


The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Kent County in central Delaware...
  East central Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland...
  Northeastern Caroline County in eastern Maryland...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 325 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Oakland, or 9 miles east of Centerville, moving
  east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

I was down at the end of my driveway taking a few shots of it approaching when the warning alert came across lol. Then a lightning bolt had be "running" back up the driveway in flip flops. 

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Second round of storms came through here managed to produce a 61.3 mph peak.  Heard a few limbs cracking.  Glad it left as fast it came.

2.73" total.  Performed about as expected TBH, we usually bust but the eastern shore gets the goods.  I'm OK with that.  Don't feel like breaking my back logging downed trees nor paying thousands for a pro to do it for me!  Gotta save that money for a new drainfield, mine is 45 years old so it's only a matter of time.

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Ended up getting hit with an initial round of convection here in Annapolis before the main squall line went through.

Part one actually had some pea-sized hail along with torrential downpours. Second one also had torrential downpours, but contained stronger winds. No reports of damage here, but friends in Rockville reported several downed trees in their neighborhood. 

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Couple of thoughts about this past event.  These are my own casual observations, feel free to add/subtract/disagree.

1.) Severe weather events are messy here 9.9 times out of 10.  We usually bust on the low side of things.  No matter how animated the meso models are leading up to an event, always remain skeptical and rely on the nowcasting stuff the morning of to determine where everything is lining up.

2.) The warm front will struggle to push north of I-66 the night before the event.  It seems that no matter what happens, warm fronts tend to settle out between I-66 and the Potomac and not make much progress until around late morning or lunch.  The longer northward progression is delayed, the lower the chances of a middle to high end event.

3.) Big dynamics with okay instability beats great instability over meh dynamics.  The February event and this past event on April 13th show that it doesn't take much surface based instability to get things going if upstairs is rocking.  

4.) Sub 1000mb lows just to our NW don't go quietly into the night (Credit: @Rainshadow).  The June, 2013 event, the Feb 2020 event and the April 13th event reinforce my thoughts on #3.

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4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Couple of thoughts about this past event.  These are my own casual observations, feel free to add/subtract/disagree.

1.) Severe weather events are messy here 9.9 times out of 10.  We usually bust on the low side of things.  No matter how animated the meso models are leading up to an event, always remain skeptical and rely on the nowcasting stuff the morning of to determine where everything is lining up.

2.) The warm front will struggle to push north of I-66 the night before the event.  It seems that no matter what happens, warm fronts tend to settle out between I-66 and the Potomac and not make much progress until around late morning or lunch.  The longer northward progression is delayed, the lower the chances of a middle to high end event.

3.) Big dynamics with okay instability beats great instability over meh dynamics.  The February event and this past event on April 13th show that it doesn't take much surface based instability to get things going if upstairs is rocking.  

4.) Sub 1000mb lows just to our NW don't go quietly into the night.  The June, 2013 event, the Feb 2020 event and the April 13th event reinforce my thoughts on #3.

Even the April 6, 2017 had fairly widespread strong winds and seven EF-0 tornadoes in northern VA... this with less than 250J/kg MUCAPE.

That June 13, 2013 event could have been a memorable event area-wide if the morning MCS didn't hamper things. It was also the last time we had a moderate risk in the immediate region though it was downgraded to a SLGT at 1630z due to said morning MCS leaving us with AOB 1000 J/Kg MLCAPE.

This is my opinion (not an expert): When dealing with a W/NW flow event with a fairly strong low-pressure system within the flow there will very often be a morning/early day MCS. This is because the previous days storms that develop in the Midwest often grow upscale during the evening and are able to survive the whole night due to the better dynamics and CAPE. With the forward speed that these MCSs usually have they very often reach us during the morning hours. An ideal thing with these regimes would be either the timing being a few hours faster so that we can get more midday/solar noon sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere more quickly for any later day activity (easier option) or a heat-dome already being in place so that any morning event would stay to the north while the low-pressure system approaches from the W/NW spawning another MCS (or just decent storms in general) during the afternoon to cruise through the region during the afternoon/evening (harder to pull off option).

 

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