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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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12 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Imo, the non tstorm winds might be the big story today. 

Agreed. That’s the biggest story today...along with any showers or storms that mix the real stuff down and make it even worse. Severe stuff sometimes pans out here but not legitly that often 

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No rain but strongest wind gusts so far peaking frequently over 50mph here.

For the first time since Jan 25, 2010 the front door "tooted" twice due to strong southerly wind gusts!  Last time before that was Isabel.  So that's saying something.  Power went off for 5 seconds at 0905 as well.  It rarely goes out for long here unless it's a legit event.  Last long term (>24 hr) event was 03/02/2018.

Be careful guys, we got 1.85" here so far, there's ponding in the yard and puddles everywhere our 7 month old border collie pup has dug!  Even strong trees can uproot in these winds.  At least they're still bare otherwise we'd have the usual damage from tstorm gusts in the summer but much more widespread.

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Yesterday I expressed concern that the carolinas would steal the show or we'd have a tad too much cloud cover.  It appears we're getting both.  While I'm still hoping for something to happen with the afternoon activity, it looks like we're going to bust on the low end here unless something changes.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yesterday I expressed concern that the carolinas would steal the show or we'd have a tad too much cloud cover.  It appears we're getting both.  While I'm still hoping for something to happen with the afternoon activity, it looks like we're going to bust on the low end here unless something changes.

Typical Mid-Atlantic severe day. 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Typical Mid-Atlantic severe day. 

It seems to be a bit worse.  The lack of weather data from commercial aircraft is really hampering NWP.  The guidance for us yesterday had everyone getting towards 75 to 80 degrees south of DC and we're stuck in the mid 60s down to EZF at nearly 10:00 am.  

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

It would be peak DC to have everything miss to our south east and north.

HRRR did kind of hint at that on a few runs with stuff getting going in like northern and northeast Maryland. Though - I can't imagine PHL and SEPA will get much more than us if the clouds don't start booking it out of here. 

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LWX thoughts

 

Potential still exists for a second round of showers and
possible thunderstorms to develop in the 15Z-18Z time frame, but
this isn`t completely certain it will happen. Hi-res models are
in disagreement with convective coverage with the HRRR showing
mainly shallow convection and the Hi-Res ARW and the NSSL WRF
ARW showing scattered deep convection in the form of short lines
or bowing segments. The 12Z IAD sounding showed two inversions
with one from sfc to 850 mb and second one from 750 to 700 mb
and corresponding high LFC or Level of Free Convection abv 700
mb. With best 3-hr pressure falls and height falls occurring
over western and north central MD in the 15Z-18Z time frame,
this is where I would expect the best chance of deep convective
development rest of today. Regardless of convective coverage and
intensity, strong gradient winds of 45 to 55 mph will occur
outside of showers except greater than 57 mph in southern MD
where 50kt have already been reported. The risk of convection
will be winding down after 18Z and should be over by 21Z if not
sooner.
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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

As soon as I type that, we get a SVR with tornado possible tag just east of Elkins, WV and there's better clearing in the WV panhandle and western MD.  Maybe there's a window for one or two good segments still.

Chance for something isolated perhaps. But we'll need some support and it's not likely to be as widespread as earlier thought possible. 

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3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Just a note! Eastern NC is lit! Wow!

 

Message from friends who have been trying to get back home to Maryland. They ducked into a Marina in Southport, NC  yesterday. 

 

"Tornado just ripped thru the area about 10 miles from us - we had to stand in front of the door to the sun deck to keep it from being blown open shearing the lock. 2 vessels near us lost all 
canvas ( Bimini tops that they did not take down and secure ) and a sail boat at end of pier that did not secure the main sail - broke lines holding the sail and it is now flopping/shredding in the wind."
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1 minute ago, Bodhi Cove said:

Message from friends who have been trying to get back home to Maryland. They ducked into a Marina in Southport, NC  yesterday. 

 

"Tornado just ripped thru the area about 10 miles from us - we had to stand in front of the door to the sun deck to keep it from being blown open shearing the lock. 2 vessels near us lost all 
canvas ( Bimini tops that they did not take down and secure ) and a sail boat at end of pier that did not secure the main sail - broke lines holding the sail and it is now flopping/shredding in the wind."

Wow! Glad they are ok!

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