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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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Regardless of what spc goes with, please everyone make sure you have a safe place to go should you find yourself under a tornado warning. With a quick low-level flow these storms will be booking it through the area. Should anything rotate, it will spin up fast. Stay safe y’all. 

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

0z 3k NAM has a line of severe storms roll through in the 3-5 AM time period and then nothing but a few isolated cells after that for Central MD.

   

verbatim, that early morning line has no sfc-based instability to work with and would be non-severe.   It's earlier with that round of convection than most other guidance.   That run still has some afternoon cells, but it's definitely not showing a widespread severe threat.

 

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7 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Slightly OT - but who has a good BV and SRV color table for GR2Analyst? 

Not sure if anybody replied

Here's what I use

Quote

product: BR
units: dBZ
step: 5


color: -30 116 78 173
color: -20 147 141 117
color: -10 204 208 175
color: 10 65 91 158
color: 17.5 111 214 232
color: 21 17 209 23
color: 25 15 192 21
color: 30 11 141 15
color: 35 9 94 9
color: 40 255 226 0
color: 49.99 255 128 0
color: 50 255 0 0
color: 59.99 113 0 0
color: 60 255 255 255  255 146 255
color: 65 255 117 255  255 11 227
color: 70 178 0 255   99 0 214
color: 75  5 236 240   0 0 0
color: 95 0 0 0

 

Quote

Product: BV
units: KTS
step: 10
Scale:   1.9426     ; converts internal units (M/S) to KTS


color: 0 138 118 118   132 56 65
color: 10 110 0 0    243 0 7
color: 35 250 55 81  255 149 208
color: 55 255 149 208  255 232 163
color: 60 255 232 163  255 149 83
color: 80 255 138 79   103 6 2
color: 120 103 6 2
color: -10 78 121 76  114 133 112
color: -35 3 245 3  5 102 3
color: -60 110 230 233  3 245 3
color: -70 48 224 227   110 230 233
color: -90 22 2 153   40 204 220
color: -100 108 4 152  22 2 153
color: -120 255 0 132  108 4 152
RF: 127 0 207

 

Quote

Product: SRV
units: KTS
step: 10
Scale:   1.9426     ; converts internal units (M/S) to KTS


color: 0 138 118 118   132 56 65
color: 10 110 0 0    243 0 7
color: 35 250 55 81  255 149 208
color: 55 255 149 208  255 232 163
color: 60 255 232 163  255 149 83
color: 80 255 138 79   103 6 2
color: 120 103 6 2
color: -10 78 121 76  114 133 112
color: -35 3 245 3  5 102 3
color: -60 110 230 233  3 245 3
color: -70 48 224 227   110 230 233
color: -90 22 2 153   40 204 220
color: -100 108 4 152  22 2 153
color: -120 255 0 132  108 4 152
RF: 127 0 207

 

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Thats new (re bolded)... never seen that before

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
357 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Garrett County in western Maryland...
  Tucker County in northeastern West Virginia...
  Preston County in northeastern West Virginia...

* Until 500 AM EDT.

* At 356 AM EDT, the back end of severe showers and isolated
  thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles
  northwest of Newburg to near Belington, moving northeast at 65 mph.

  HAZARD...Wind gusts to 65 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines, resulting in some
           power outages.

* Locations impacted include...
  Kingwood...                       Mountain Lake Park...
  Oakland...                        Parsons...
  Terra Alta...                     Davis...
  Thomas...                         Rowlesburg...
  Bittinger...                      Grantsville...
  Loch Lynn Heights...              Friendsville...

This includes the following highways...
  Interstate 68 in Maryland between mile markers 1 and 29.
  Interstate 68 in West Virginia between mile markers 17 and 32.
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LWX morning disco on our threat

Thunderstorms may contain gusty winds early this morning and
even a spin up cannot be ruled out. However, SBCAPE values
should remain low during this time so any threat will be
localized.

The dry slot will move in around mid-morning, and when combined
with the increased warm advection, this should enhance
instability and have it rooted within the boundary layer. The
coverage of precipitation may diminish some, but strong to
severe thunderstorms are possible during this time. Given the
long an curved hodographs, damaging winds, large hail and
tornadoes are all a threat with linear segments and supercells
possible. The best chance for severe storms will be between 9
AM and 3 PM east of the Allegheny Highlands.

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Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

DCZ001-MDZ013-504-506-VAZ053-054-130900-
District of Columbia-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Prince
Georges-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls
Church/Alexandria-
412 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WASHINGTON METRO AREA...

At 4 AM EDT, very heavy rain was moving northeast out of northern
Virginia into the Washington metro area. As it moves through, this
will cause hazardous driving conditions and poor drainage flooding
between 4 and 6 this morning. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.
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1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Looks like the day one enhanced remained largely unchanged from yesterday’s day 2? And can someone post the tornado prob map from SPC plz? Day 1 today. 

 

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Looks like the day one enhanced remained largely unchanged from yesterday’s day 2? And can someone post the tornado prob map from SPC plz? Day 1 today. 

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

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down the road a few hours for us maybe...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
435 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Stokes County in north central North Carolina...
  Western Rockingham County in north central North Carolina...
  Eastern Yadkin County in northwestern North Carolina...
  Southwestern Campbell County in central Virginia...
  Western Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia...
  The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia...
  South central Bedford County in south central Virginia...
  Henry County in south central Virginia...
  Southeastern Franklin County in west central Virginia...
  Southeastern Patrick County in southwestern Virginia...

* Until 530 AM EDT.

* At 435 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Sontag to near Clemmons, moving northeast at 35
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eden...
  Martinsville...
  Rocky Mount...
  Altavista...
  Wentworth...
  Mayodan...
  and Madison.

This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway and
Martinsville Airport.
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New TOR Watch coming soon for S VA into NC = https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0377.html

mcd0377.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into
   southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 130840Z - 131015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with an evolving squall line is
   expected to increase across the region through daybreak and beyond,
   accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a deepening elongated surface
   cyclone, centered over the Great Lakes, will continue to shift
   across and east of the Appalachians through 11-13Z, ahead of the
   remnants of a vigorous short wave impulse approaching the
   Appalachians.  Aided by strengthening southerly low-level flow,
   including 50-70 kt at 850 mb, moisture return is ongoing across much
   of the southern Mid Atlantic.  Surface dew points are now rising
   through the mid/upper 60s across much of central and eastern North
   Carolina, and this moisture is expected to continue to advect
   northward ahead of the evolving squall line, into much of
   southern/eastern Virginia through daybreak into mid/late morning. 
   This will contribute to boundary-layer destabilization sufficient to
   support at least the  maintenance of vigorous convection, with
   continuing intensification possible, accompanied by the the risk for
   damaging wind gusts and a few embedded tornadoes.

   ..Kerr/Thompson.. 04/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...
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Tornado Warning
VAC067-089-143-690-130930-
/O.NEW.KRNK.TO.W.0003.200413T0901Z-200413T0930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
501 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia...
  The City of Martinsville in south central Virginia...
  Central Henry County in south central Virginia...
  Eastern Franklin County in west central Virginia...

* Until 530 AM EDT.

* At 501 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Martinsville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Martinsville...
  Sydnorsville...
  Penhook...
  Snow Creek...
  Leatherwood...
  Villa Heights...
  and Chatmoss.

This includes The following Locations The Martinsville Speedway and
Martinsville Airport.
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This is technically round 2 now, as the actual warm front is lifting north over the area. Next we see how unstable we can get from around mid morning on. What develops at that point would be round 3, and carry severe potential, with the best chances of mixing some of that strong wind field aloft down to the surface.

Winds are really picking up here now, with some heavy showers moving through.

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Will likely effect EZF region in an hour

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Louisa County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Prince Edward County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Nottoway County in south central Virginia...
  Goochland County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Hanover County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Amelia County in central Virginia...
  Powhatan County in central Virginia...

* Until 745 AM EDT.

* At 655 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles north of Hadensville to Trenholm to near
  Hampden Sydney College, moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near,
  Louisa, Mineral and Trenholm around 700 AM EDT.
  Goochland and Bumpass around 705 AM EDT.
  Oilville, Jetersville and Gum Spring around 710 AM EDT.
  Amelia Courthouse, Morven and Tobaccoville around 715 AM EDT.
  Montpelier, Chula and Ballsville around 720 AM EDT.
  Powhatan and Macon around 725 AM EDT.
  Sabot around 735 AM EDT.
  Tuckahoe and Manakin around 740 AM EDT
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