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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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Hmmm... LWX keeps upgrading the Wind Advisory to HWW for more and more counties... first it was St. Marys and Calvert at 430ish... just now updated again and now includes PG/Charles/King George VA/AA counties

ETA: This was reason why at 430 St. Mary's and Calvert were added to HWW per the AFD:

Quote

Update...Added Calvert and St Mary`s Counties to the High Wind
Warning Monday based on low-level jet positioned over the
Delmarva, which likley will stretch back toward the southern
Maryland shoreline.
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Would someone be kind enough to post the NAM and GFS or any type of model output that shows for VA DC etc as to what squall line will look like when it blows through tomorrow morning? Or is there a site I can access that would show this in a better manner than instant weather maps.

*I have Pivotal weather as well. That seems to be a bit better wrt svr parameters they offer.

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5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

So far, things appear to be on time, if anything the system is a tad north of everything and the activity is remarkable discrete down south.  Not really congealing into a QLCS.

Still time for that to happen, though. It would be great if we weren't socked in tomorrow morning when the sun came up. 

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Still time for that to happen, though. It would be great if we weren't socked in tomorrow morning when the sun came up. 

We're going to star the day cloudy and misty.  There's no escaping that.  What really helps us is that we got a healthy low and mid level jet to help us get at least some clearing.  It's not like we're waiting for the warm front to struggle through the area.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

That’s just terrible what’s going on down in MS.  I hope everyone is safe.  I’m sure an unpopular opinion here but I’d prefer we see 0 tornadoes.  

Not unpopular to me. I don't want tornadoes. Who the hell wants a tornado damaging their property, or even worse, a potentially high-end tornado killing people?

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

sorry, what do you mean by "safe" spot?

My safe spot is next to my beer fridge in my underground basement....next to my TV that continually replays the Kuzy OT winner against the Pens. 

You know the one...:lol:

 

PS - whats the ETA on morning craziness? Need to set some alarms for a Jebwalk. Oh wait wrong thread. Someone get me Delorean!

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FWIW, the 23z HRRR, gets a QLCS going up into Allentown, PA and has everyone from Mason-Dixon south in an environmental conductive for tornadoes from 09z to 17z tomorrow. I don't think it's going to happen the way the HRRR is saying, but it's still somewhat encouraging to see the meso models not backing down.

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Just checked the HRR/RAP/NAM/NAM-nest.  They all have a QLCS-ish thing running through the DC/Baltimore area between 17z and 20z tomorrow. They all have the leading edge of the WAA precip hitting BWI around 00z and here we are at 00:46z with light rain at my house in Reisterstown so they don't appear to be terribly off when it comes to timing.  

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

Not unpopular to me. I don't want tornadoes. Who the hell wants a tornado damaging their property, or even worse, a potentially high-end tornado killing people?

I often wonder about this myself when I see people's posts on here about very severe storms.  While I realize that people's hopes on a website aren't going to change where a storm hits, everyone is a hardass about tornadoes until one destroys their house or worse.

I also think a lot of the people who root for tornadoes live in buildings they don't own... apartments, rentals, etc.  That or they just don't think it can happen to them and don't much care if it happens to anyone else.

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4 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Have there been widespread 50 mph+ gusts across the area from a *southerly* direction since Isabel (03)?

Specifically for us it would be the morning of January 25, 2010. 

The front of my house faces due south.  The front door has metal weatherstripping and when the winds gust around 50mph or higher there's enough pressure to make it buzz like a kazoo.  It's quite loud.  And IIRC the last time this happened was then.  Before that would have been Isabel.

The sound is just like as is heard in this video here:

 

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I could see the ENH get pushed to Mason-Dixon for wind. And have the 10% TOR go from a JYO to DCA to SBY line.

My ceiling scenario for the D1 would be 10% TOR w or w/o hatching to the Mason Dixon Line, 45% wind, 15% hail. I think that's max for us. 

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