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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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Intriguing disco as well for our region from the morning Day 2 OTLK:

  ... Eastern Georgia into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic...
   Substantial low-level moistening is expected over eastern GA into
   the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic through the period. There is a nonzero
   risk of organized convection along/north of the warm front during
   the day into the evening, which would pose some risk of locally
   damaging wind or perhaps a tornado, but confidence in this scenario
   is low at this time. A more likely scenario is for widespread
   upstream convection to evolve into multiple clusters or a QLCS and
   move into this region sometime early Monday morning. Intense wind
   profiles will support a risk of widespread damaging wind and a few
   tornadoes, given sufficient instability. 

   The magnitude and coverage of the severe threat in this region will
   be determined in part by how fast organized convection approaches
   from the west. If convection accelerates and arrives faster that
   current guidance would indicate, then there is less time for
   low-level moistening and destabilization, and the magnitude and
   northward-extent of the threat may be limited. If convection does
   not arrive until very late in the period, then a more substantial
   severe threat could evolve. If some of the slower guidance turns out
   to be accurate, then the primary severe threat in this region may
   not come until the D3/Monday period. Probabilities may need to be
   increased in this area once the details come into better focus.

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New day 3 OTLK disco adds even more intrigue for our region lol

...Mid Atlantic southeastward into northern FL...
   Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the eastward progress of
   widespread convection that is expected to develop upstream Sunday
   night into early Monday morning. With very strong wind fields and at
   least marginal instability in place ahead of any ongoing
   thunderstorm clusters or QLCS, some threat for damaging wind and a
   few tornadoes will exist until convection moves completely offshore.

   If slower solutions end up verifying, then there would be time for
   additional destabilization in advance of any convection from the Mid
   Atlantic southward into the Carolinas, which would result in the
   potential for a more substantial severe risk, including the
   potential for more widespread damaging winds and possibly a greater
   tornado threat, associated with bowing segments and/or embedded
   supercells. If this scenario appears more likely in subsequent
   updates, an increase in probabilities will be required for some
   portion of this area. It is also possible that at least some of the
   Slight Risk area will need to be downgraded if convection reaches
   the coast faster than currently forecast.

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12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The 06z NAM appears to have been an improvement again. SARS is even lighting up with sounding matches from the database at some points in our area. It maintains instability and puts good supercell and sigtor parameters in our area Mon.

The Nest is in range now.  The sim radar isn’t that interesting, probably because there are showers out front almost until initiation.  However, the wind fields/sounding is wild.  Wouldn’t take much to mix down (or spin up) something fun.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Nest is in range now.  The sim radar isn’t that interesting, probably because there are showers out front almost until initiation.  However, the wind fields/sounding is wild.  Wouldn’t take much to mix down (or spin up) something fun.

The realist in me is expecting gusty showers or a gusty squall at best. But Feb 7 remains pretty highlighted in my mind. Things certainly haven't trended badly for us if you want some excitement. And if the recent Euro runs are right - we might do it all over again about 7 days later. 

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39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Monday is so close to a big event in these parts.  Slow thing down by about 2 to 5 hours and it could be really interesting.

The slowing trend isn't as pronounced anymore - the other thing to consider is these squally type things do tend to come in a bit earlier than forecast. But the NAM keeps wanting to up the game. Insert all the usual "NAM at longer ranges" caveats. 

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Gotta wait and see what happens tomorrow and tomorrow night but so far I like what I see.

I even think an 11am arrival time could do relatively well for us. I'm thinking a show time of 19z or later is mostly off the table. Maybe we compromise with the models slowing a bit but then the line/whatever it is arriving earlier. Gut says 10am-2pm could be the time to watch. 

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

I’m not basing this post on anything scientific.  I just have a hunch tomorrow might be sneaky and some places see something big around here. 

You mean Monday. Tomorrow’s action is down south 

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57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I even think an 11am arrival time could do relatively well for us. I'm thinking a show time of 19z or later is mostly off the table. Maybe we compromise with the models slowing a bit but then the line/whatever it is arriving earlier. Gut says 10am-2pm could be the time to watch. 

Yea that'll work this time of year.  We just need a bit of SBCAPE and some sun to help the storms get rooted at the surface.  This isn't some rotted out 1012mb low, it's going to be rapidly maturing so it won't take much.

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17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that'll work this time of year.  We just need a bit of SBCAPE and some sun to help the storms get rooted at the surface.  This isn't some rotted out 1012mb low, it's going to be rapidly maturing so it won't take much.

I'm not sure we'll get much sun - that is still very much to be determined. I think there might be enough heavy rain the night before leftover to spoil that aspect of it. 

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