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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread


Kmlwx
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8 minutes ago, high risk said:

pretty stong agreement among the CAMs this morning that the threat later today is all north of the DC Beltway, and depending on your model of choice, it could well north.

my area north, or into PA?

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

well shit. guess i should pay attention. timing? 

      lots of signal around 7 or 8pm, but a general 6-9pm range should cover it.    overall severe threat seems fairly low but not non-zero, consistent with the SPC outlook.   But lightning would be a nice early March bonus.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

      lots of signal around 7 or 8pm, but a general 6-9pm range should cover it.    overall severe threat seems fairly low but not non-zero, consistent with the SPC outlook.   But lightning would be a nice early March bonus.

thanks! have a thing after work, but should be home by 530 at the latest. would hate to miss something exciting happening lol 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Given the dense cloud cover, safe to say today will be a classic Mid Atlantic Nothingburger™ unless things clear out fast.

I tend to think most severe weather outbreaks are overplayed in this area anyways but yeah, radar doesnt look like much right now

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8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I tend to think most severe weather outbreaks are overplayed in this area anyways but yeah, radar doesnt look like much right now

       not at all saying that this will end up as a severe event, but the radar is supposed to look empty right now, regardless of whether we get severe.   The guidance shows storms breaking out over central WV in the next 2 hours and then racing east-northeast.

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2 hours ago, Baltimorewx said:

Death toll up to 19 in Tennessee...mostly in Putnam county, well east of Nashville...Will be interesting to find out exactly how many tornadoes there were or if this was mostly just from one single long track tornado

right now NWS Nashville are looking at two distinct areas of damage, both upper ends of EF3. Could be from the same tornado. 

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

I tend to think most severe weather outbreaks are overplayed in this area anyways but yeah, radar doesnt look like much right now

i think you should not post this until weather actually pops up. 

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mcd0146.gif

 

yay -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0146.html

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

   Areas affected...much of Pennsylvania...Maryland...West
   Virginia...and western through northern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032127Z - 032330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Relatively shallow convection continues to migrate
   eastward into the discussion area and will continue to pose a threat
   of isolated damaging wind gusts and small hail.  A WW issuance is
   not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively shallow convection continues within an axis
   of weak instability extending from near FKL to EKN to BKW.  Ahead of
   this axis, insolation has allowed for temperatures to rise into the
   low 60s amidst mid/upper 40s F dewpoints.  Cooling associated with
   advancement of a mid-level wave across the region has contributed to
   the destabilization and will likely allow for this axis of
   instability to spread eastward in tandem with convection across the
   discussion area over the next couple hours or so.  A mix of cellular
   and linear convection should continue, which will allow for
   occasional updraft rotation given strong shear and fast flow aloft. 
   Any wind/hail threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane
   after dark with the onset of nocturnal boundary layer cooling. 
   Furthermore, the weak instability is limiting the overall magnitude
   of the severe threat, precluding a WW issuance.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
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