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January 22nd-25th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

UHI didn't have an affect either.

Temps in IN and S Michigan were in the mid 30's as well, advecting in from the east.

Then how come only Milwaukee County was affected?  If it’s warm air advecting from the East it would affect Kenosha, Racine, Ozaukee, etc. Counties unless it was lake/UHI effect.

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Just now, wisconsinwx said:

Then how come only Milwaukee County was affected?  If it’s warm air adverting from the East it would affect Kenosha, Racine, Ozaukee, etc. Counties unless it was lake/UHI effect.

Look at Racine obs. They flipped to rain last night too. It was raining here in Lake County by midnight. 
 

Still don’t think tonight will work out.

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2 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

Then how come only Milwaukee County was affected?  If it’s warm air advecting from the East it would affect Kenosha, Racine, Ozaukee, etc. Counties unless it was lake/UHI effect.

Temps at MKE last night were 34-36, at ENW 35-37 and UGN 34-36.

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11 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Look at Racine obs. They flipped to rain last night too. It was raining here in Lake County by midnight. 
 

Still don’t think tonight will work out.

To be fair, there was some pretty serious evap cooling near STL last night. Temps may be a degree or two higher, but I still think somewhere between MBY and the Hillside Strangle see's 5"+

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

I agree that max amounts it shows of 6-7" are likely too high.

2-5" is the safer call.

of course most know how to interpret the snow maps and take them with a grain of salt in each event situation.   The euro paints the picture of 2-5" and the likely areas with the better chance of hitting the higher end.

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42 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

My final snow total is 3.1".  That's makes my combined wave total 6.0".

My season snow total has quietly risen to 27.4", only a few inches below the average full season total.

Very nice.  You're about 6" ahead of us.  Best event of the winter will no doubt be the 5" snow followed by the mini-ice event.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Surface flow is actually gonna turn offshore with that surface low position north of Chicago, especially overnight.  If lakeside gets a lot less than farther west, bad def band positioning would probably be the bigger culprit.

Once that happens, that is when they will see snow and accumulations 

It isn't all rain for the 50 feet along and inland from the lake.

ecmwf-deterministic-chi-total_snow_kuchera-9996800.thumb.png.3d16498ac62d3eaf6b28917bbf334503.png

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Surface flow is actually gonna turn offshore with that surface low position north of Chicago, especially overnight.  If lakeside gets a lot less than farther west, bad def band positioning would probably be the bigger culprit.

u just gotta take a quick glance at the radar to know the euro placement is lol

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