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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Wouldn’t it be crazy if everyone checks out and we sneak one in?  

If that were to happen, I'd be kinda proud to say that I stayed checked in! :D (and mainly it's because of history, really...I mean sure, we could get our 3-4 year footer in sometime next month...but having it happen this way would be sweet, lol Does the trend continue?...)

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I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 

H3wuX5Y.png

 

This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 

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I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 
H3wuX5Y.png&key=5f09511b16659c474e957656e0e44867a6c75f7d480c5c2473b97b36afb5cec8
 
This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 
We dont need cold air....we had a foot of snow in 1988 or 89 with no cold air...temp never fell below 36 I think

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This isn’t one of those times when a model is completely on its own. The CMC, the JMA, the ICON all have somewhat of a similar evolution.

If any model gives us 2 feet of snow it's going to be the NAM because it's the dumbest model.. Euro isn't even a good setup for anyone  east of 81.

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

If any model gives us 2 feet of snow it's going to be the NAM because it's the dumbest model.. Euro isn't even a good setup for anyone  east of 81.

Possibly all true. But you don’t think I’m really studying the weather East of I81 do you? LOL.

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z navgem4fb4d184116743158f8afe3fcbcdf6ed.jpg

Look at that date Ji...20th anniversary of One of the most memorable events in weenie history...1-2 inches was revised to 1-2 feet overnight.  Dogs and cats living together...mayhem

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

We dont need cold air....we had a foot of snow in 1988 or 89 with no cold air...temp never fell below 36 I think emoji23.png

I just check the eps control... it actually has the storm. Comes right out of the SW and bumps against confluence/sprawling hp to the north. EPS is onto something me thinks. Hopefully in 5 days it becomes real. 

gQOTvLg.png

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 

H3wuX5Y.png

 

This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 

Bob is there a table like that for Winchester or maybe Hagerstown? Any location out this way?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Possibly all true. But you don’t think I’m really studying the weather East of I81 do you? LOL.

It's where 95% of the board lives.

Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own.

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 

H3wuX5Y.png

 

This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 

Yeah I agree that right now it’s just a couple models runs and likely a couple more model runs from something way different (and likely worse). Thing that raises my eyebrow is that we have a few big gums showing g something close to workable for us. Enough antecedent cold and maybe we sneak some mangled mess in. 

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Just now, Amped said:

It's where 95% of the board lives.

Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own.

Oh I don’t disagree that it’s out there. But it’s not on an island either. But still, you have to realize the we all look at weather in our own backyard.

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21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This isn’t one of those times when a model is completely on its own. The CMC, the JMA, the ICON all have somewhat of a similar evolution.

That’s what I’ve been thinking. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Bob is there a table like that for Winchester or maybe Hagerstown? Any location out this way?

OKV has 8 members showing more than 2". Half of those support the op. 

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Just now, Amped said:

It's where 95% of the board lives.

Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own.

Whatever model gives us the least snow is ussually right. The euro was the first to degrade the look for yesterday and all other models followed then. Im sure the euro will trend to the gfs this time lol

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22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Look at that date Ji...20th anniversary of One of the most memorable events in weenie history...1-2 inches was revised to 1-2 feet overnight.  Dogs and cats living together...mayhem

Boy that’s not far away from a nice look. 

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I just check the eps control... it actually has the storm. Comes right out of the SW and bumps against confluence/sprawling hp to the north. EPS is onto something me thinks. Hopefully in 5 days it becomes real. 
gQOTvLg.png&key=7eadca9a3e0907680888e67cd92267ad117b76ee08c2a2a1702fbfda9e155365
Dude that's 12 days out lol...eps screwed up the pattern 5 days out...hard to trust with storm 12 days out. Right now the euo gives me 6 next Sunday. That's what I'm tracking....till 00z
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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Dude that's 12 days out lol...eps screwed up the pattern 5 days out...hard to trust with storm 12 days out. Right now the euo gives me 6 next Sunday. That's what I'm tracking....till 00z

It's the first time I've seen some sort of agreement for a specific window in a looooong time. EPS can be pretty good at picking miller A's at long range. We all know d10+ is unstable AF. We'll see how it evolves over the next 5 days. Miller As can be long tracked. We just don't get them often enough to remember anything about them. Not saying I believe a damn thing but what else are we going to do? Track a storm with roasting 850 temps and stale rotten air that wasn't even cold to begin with?

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the first time I've seen some sort of agreement for a specific window in a looooong time. EPS can be pretty good at picking miller A's at long range. We all know d10+ is unstable AF. We'll see how it evolves over the next 5 days. Miller As can be long tracked. We just don't get them often enough to remember anything about them. Not saying I believe a damn thing but what else are we going to do? Track a storm with roasting 850 temps and stale rotten air that wasn't even cold to begin with?

Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol

While epic looks have degraded, we still are in peak climo and we can do it in less than stellar looks.
Something to think about as we wait for the next unicorn to chase. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Missed all the model discussion fun today:snowing:.  But didn't see the day 7 Ukmet posted . Looks to get wraparound into Md . Could be frozen . 

 

PhotoPictureResizer_200119_182123576_crop_1440x2099.jpg

You didn’t miss anything 

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56 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Boy that’s not far away from a nice look. 

Guidance/ens members with near perfect track all have one thing in common....lack of cold air source. Everything is bottled in Canada. We dont do well holding out hope for storms to "manufacture their own cold air pool". 

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