• Member Statistics

    15,753
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    queenofscience
    Newest Member
    queenofscience
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It takes a low from the panhandle of Florida straight north to northern Indiana.

No. That low ends up over NC. There is an ULL that pops a surface low in Indiana.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

No. That low ends up over NC. There is an ULL that pops a surface low in Indiana.

How so? At 144 it’s in the fla panhandle, at 150 it’s in western ky. There’s no low in NC at that time. Maybe this is a transfer of sorts but I don’t see that the low moved to NC. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How so? At 144 it’s in the fla panhandle, at 150 it’s in western ky. There’s no low in NC at that time. Maybe this is a transfer of sorts but I don’t see that the low moved to NC. 

Maybe I'm misreading it....I'm running a loop and sure looks like the panhandle low heads NE and the upper low over the Plains captures a different low. Either way it's a different solution.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Maybe I'm misreading it....I'm running a loop and sure looks like the panhandle low heads NE and the upper low over the Plains captures a different low. Either way it's a different solution.

 

718ADE1D-5C77-447D-9BEF-8AD95FCF3F57.png

CDEF73DE-A412-42D1-9119-DC291306201E.png

B4F1F785-193D-4DA7-8D3D-9CB1123118FA.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

 

718ADE1D-5C77-447D-9BEF-8AD95FCF3F57.png

CDEF73DE-A412-42D1-9119-DC291306201E.png

B4F1F785-193D-4DA7-8D3D-9CB1123118FA.png

I assume the devil is in the details as to where the transfer happens.  Obviously TN valley is preferred.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BristowWx said:

I assume the devil is in the details as to where the transfer happens.  Obviously TN valley is preferred.  

Correct. General rule of thumb is you never want the primary to get to your latitude. Would take a lot of luck to get it to work next weekend. Not a zero probability but be like the Browns winning the super bowl next year. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, losetoa6 said:

12z Gefs for next weekend 

Hr 174

f174.gif

Which one is best?  I mean in your opinion...bottom right maybe 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:
Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern

Lol what do you see in February?

Just general ideas of a having a -epo and/or +pna more often than the opposite. It's unusual how things are failing over the next week. Ens almost got it right but the Canadian ridge is in the way of getting deep cold int the mid latitudes. I saw a cluster of ens members showing warmish/rainish potential a week ago but it was a minority and the clear majority said amplified and cold was likely. Go figure... the minority fail solutions are right this time when the majority has been winning over the last month. It's like a hex...

Feb just looks ok imo. Nothing discrete or specific. Just that we could get a couple breaks for the first time all winter

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Which one is best?  I mean in your opinion...bottom right maybe 

There's a few that have potential...10,6 ,0

And that's only 12 of 22 members 

Mainly the coastal potential or transfer I was pointing out . Its something 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available
Not really...they always show nothing
  • Like 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

Useless outside of 5 days imo

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the probability maps because they are useful in seeing trends when viewed over several runs.  I use the 3 inch or more to get rid of the noise of the members showing a dusting.  The reality is that there is 0 percent chance of snow before next weekend.  No map of any kind will change that reality.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern

would be nice to see the 540 line closer to our lat for a change when a system is encroaching (or a better vort pass), otherwise we need a perfectly timed high pressure to the north.  without ample blocking these air masses seem to be getting booted out too soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

Not really...they always show nothing

They generally show snow where it tends to snow, and nothing where it rarely happens. Not a bad tool when there is a favorable pattern for snow, and a discrete threat inside of 7 days. Otherwise it just reminds us we live too far south for snow.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the only way we score over the next few weeks is to time something after an amped system  goes by and drags the boundary south of us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

It really depends on what you're using them for. Verbatim and setting specific expectations is crazy. However, they are an excellent tool with probabilities. Especially when there is a disconnect. When the ens mean h5 looks ripe but member solutions aren't showing much it provides valuable insight that there are some issues that the mean is smoothing over

Ens mean h5 panels are obviously the most important of any long range panel. They provide evidence of a decent/snowable pattern potential or evidence that snow is very unlikely. I like to check under the hood of ens mean and snow meteos are the clearest and most concise chart you can get that info from. Nobody is going to like this post but here's the 12z eps snow meteo for the metar closest to my house. It looks downright depressing for primo climo.

94VBa8u.png

 

You can immediately see that odds are close nil through the end of the month. When you have ops and ens showing almost no snowfall over the next 10 days it's often a reliable and accurate indicator to not expect much. Even d10-15 looks horrible and the gefs is actually worse... lol

One thing that kept bugging me a week ago when things looked more promising was the lack of any kind of signal that snowfall odds were above normal. There were a few days that looked pretty good but on the balance it looked pretty bad and here we are... staring at a 10 day period with little to no chance. I'm not doubting the eps or gefs snow output right now. Even when they are loaded with potential chances it still takes a good bit of luck to line things up. When they agree like this that any meaningful snowfall is unlikely it's not something you can ignore. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

It really depends on what you're using them for. Verbatim and setting specific expectations is crazy. However, they are an excellent tool with probabilities.

Ens mean h5 panels are obviously the most important of any long range panel. They provide evidence of a decent/snowable pattern potential or evidence that snow is very unlikely. I like to check under the hood of ens mean and snow meteos are the clearest and most concise chart you can get that info from. Nobody is going to like this post but here's the 12z eps snow meteo for the metar closest to my house. It looks downright depressing for primo climo.

94VBa8u.png

 

You can immediately see that odds are close nil through the end of the month. When you have ops and ens showing almost no snowfall over the next 10 days it's a reliable and accurate indicator to not expect much. Even d10-15 looks horrible and the gefs is actually worse... lol

One thing that kept bugging me a week ago when things looked more promising was the lack of any kind of signal that snowfall odds were above normal. There were a few days that looked pretty good but on the balance it looked pretty bad and here we are... staring at a 10 day period with little to no chance. I'm not doubting the eps or gefs snow output right now. Even when they are loaded with potential chances it still takes a good bit of luck to line things up. When they agree like this that any meaningful snowfall is unlikely it's not something you can ignore. 

I thought there were a bunch of GEFS runs where people were going bonkers over the signal and the amount of snow they were putting out. I find GEFS snowfall maps to be completely worthless.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought there were a bunch of GEFS runs where people were going bonkers over the signal and the amount of snow they were putting out. I find GEFS snowfall maps to be completely worthless.

There were 2-3 days of good runs before guidance latched onto the canadian ridge then the wheels came off. The good runs were off and on iirc. Some looked good and others looked so so at best. They looked their best when today's storm looked like it would produce. Other than that member solutions were mostly shotgun style and not keying in on a specific event. I was too busy to look much this past week but every quick scan from Tues onwards looked progressively worse. Today is the lowest low. Lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something tells me...that IF we get any warning-level snow this winter at all...it's gonna be a foot that comes all at once...and then that's probably it, lol (ala 2006)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Something tells me that IF we get any warning-level snow this winter at all...it's gonna be a foot that comes all at once...and then that's probably it, lol (ala 2006)

agreed.  this winter could still end up sneaky in that regard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It really depends on what you're using them for. Verbatim and setting specific expectations is crazy. However, they are an excellent tool with probabilities. Especially when there is a disconnect. When the ens mean h5 looks ripe but member solutions aren't showing much it provides valuable insight that there are some issues that the mean is smoothing over
Ens mean h5 panels are obviously the most important of any long range panel. They provide evidence of a decent/snowable pattern potential or evidence that snow is very unlikely. I like to check under the hood of ens mean and snow meteos are the clearest and most concise chart you can get that info from. Nobody is going to like this post but here's the 12z eps snow meteo for the metar closest to my house. It looks downright depressing for primo climo.
94VBa8u.png&key=552b959f2740a0d3c8c5906ed0bb7bc2b63cc6396bcf7a18b5f201dc5376a181
 
You can immediately see that odds are close nil through the end of the month. When you have ops and ens showing almost no snowfall over the next 10 days it's often a reliable and accurate indicator to not expect much. Even d10-15 looks horrible and the gefs is actually worse... lol
One thing that kept bugging me a week ago when things looked more promising was the lack of any kind of signal that snowfall odds were above normal. There were a few days that looked pretty good but on the balance it looked pretty bad and here we are... staring at a 10 day period with little to no chance. I'm not doubting the eps or gefs snow output right now. Even when they are loaded with potential chances it still takes a good bit of luck to line things up. When they agree like this that any meaningful snowfall is unlikely it's not something you can ignore. 
You are forgetting the multiple posts including yourself where you kept posting stuff and calling it weenie runs. There was alot of goodies floating out there and now it's all gone
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Ji said:

You are forgetting the multiple posts including yourself where you kept posting stuff and calling it weenie runs. There was alot of goodies floating out there and now it's all gone

A good portion of what made those runs weenieish was today's storm. Lol. It was the only storm that had decent consensus. At one point over 50% of the eps members has 2" or more of snowfall. Beyond that was shotgun style. Those panels looked great from a distance but I realized today that shoveling rain sucks. 

I'm actually disinterested in long range now. Winter has shown its hand... the struggle is real 

  • Like 5
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A good portion of what made those runs weenieish was today's storm. Lol. It was the only storm that had decent consensus. At one point over 50% of the eps members has 2" or more of snowfall. Beyond that was shotgun style. Those panels looked great from a distance but I realized today that shoveling rain sucks. 

I'm actually disinterested in long range now. Winter has shown its hand... the struggle is real 

Pretty much.  Not much else to do, maybe check in and see what's going on over the next couple of weeks and hope we can score something for Feb/Mar at some point.  It's about as bad and boring as things can get right now...at least, I don't think the pattern can get much worse than a shutout to near shutout look.  What, stronger ridging than anticipated with 60 degrees instead of 40s or 50s? :lol: 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm almost to the point of taking some time off from here for a bit. Seems like the blinds are closed for the foreseeable future. It's getting close to the point where it's just time to root for a 2016-type fluke where we get super lucky and get a monster storm and call it a winter. Probably the only way to save this winter.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.