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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

No signs of meaningful changes in the HL on the ensembles. Our best shot at a more favorable pattern towards the end of the month probably still lies with some changes on the Pacific side- to get the ridge to migrate further east. Given the persistence there all winter, that's not much to hang onto either lol.

Pretty much given up on that. Get a day of two of better looks/trends in that direction and yet inevitably it slides backwards. Has happened pretty much every time. Been one of the more frustrating winters in that regards because it wouldn't really take much in the way of shifting that PAC ridging eastward to get a somewhat half decent setup despite no N Atl help. Whatever. Think I am going to do what others have been discussing and travel to the snow. That is if I can get a decent storm to time up around the weekend in a local that is within 3-4 hours driving distance. 

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16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Pretty much given up on that. Get a day of two of better looks/trends in that direction and yet inevitably it slides backwards. Has happened pretty much every time. Been one of the more frustrating winters in that regards because it wouldn't really take much in the way of shifting that PAC ridging eastward to get a somewhat half decent setup despite no N Atl help. Whatever. Think I am going to do what others have been discussing and travel to the snow. That is if I can get a decent storm to time up around the weekend in a local that is within 3-4 hours driving distance. 

I’m a skier so I’ve been watching 40north and obviously they have a good chance at multiple events in he next two weeks. They actually do well with a neutral or slightly positive nao. We get screwed unfortunately. Checkout Burlington. It’s a cool spot. PF (powderfreak)in the New England forum works at Stowe and can give good recommendations on things to do if you don’t ski.

Our chances improve if we get a modest ridge to develop over Idaho and a neutral Atlantic. I’m done speculating though. I’ll believe it when we’re within 3-4 days

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The trend continues this afternoon with the AO forecast going up to extreme levels.  

The OP targets + 7 and the EPS targets over + 6. 

Remarkable. 

And don't look for the PNA to help,  as it dives negative. 

The AO may drop back down mid month but not sure the improvement, if you want to call it that,  is simply a temporary cycle down until it goes back up later in the month.

I don't see any real improvement in the NAM state any time soon. Maybe in early March on a meaningful and sustained level.  If the AO correlation holds for Feb., then any snow opportunities in our area will be limited,  and as for significant events ( greater than 6 inches )  are off the table all together.  

Keep in mind as well, any snow events that do show up in the long range or medium range always seem to trend to either coastal huger,  cutter or far South and sheared. This has been going on since last winter. 

 

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Glad the Superbowl is on, cause there's nothing to see here 

Although I must say I did learn the many reasons why it does not snow here   So if this type winter ever shows up again I am solid on what the result will be. Actually I am wondering how it ever snows.  There are like 47 ways for it not to snow and like 4 that allow it to snow.  

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12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Although I must say I did learn the many reasons why it does not snow here   So if this type winter ever shows up again I am solid on what the result will be. Actually I am wondering how it ever snows.  There are like 47 ways for it not to snow and like 4 that allow it to snow.  

You sure about that? Lol Around here you cam never be completely solid on a result...particularly not when we just started February. All it takes is one storm...there have been a few winters where it did happen like that...snowless and then boom--a storm (like Feb 2006). Of course it's hard to know if that happens or not (although my inner snow weenie is intrigued about Day 10, lol), but it is always possible if we get a tiny window and manage to score. And with all the waves we still have coming at us, all it would take is for the more hostile elements of our atmosphere to let up just enough...so we'll see. Never any guarantees.

Edit: Well, I'm a bit hypocritical on this when it comes to ninas....now those? In the future, I will feel very solid on how those will look even before they start, lol They're AWFUL! But I digress...

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18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You sure about that? Lol Around here you cam never be completely solid on a result...particularly not when we just started February. All it takes is one storm...there have been a few winters where it did happen like that...snowless and then boom--a storm (like Feb 2006). Of course it's hard to know if that happens or not (although my inner snow weenie is intrigued about Day 10, lol), but it is always possible if we get a tiny window and manage to score. And with all the waves we still have coming at us, all it would take is for the more hostile elements of our atmosphere to let up just enough...so we'll see. Never any guarantees.

Edit: Well, I'm a bit hypocritical on this when it comes to ninas....now those? In the future, I will feel very solid on how those will look even before they start, lol They're AWFUL! But I digress...

Solid like Jell-O.  You are right.  That was a mini rant.  This winter has been exhausting and for that I am certain like concrete is solid. 

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