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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO for this weekend.  Still a fish storm, but the fish are now getting wet on the Delmarva not off of the coast.

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-instant_ptype_3hr-0569200.png

this storm was especially disappointing because had it been a legit noreaster, it would of been a heavy wet snow event. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Gotta see the positives dude. The fact that the euro and UKIE took pretty radical jumps is indicative that there’s a lot up in the air with this one.

didnt the ukie go from wet and close to out to sea?

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40 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12z GEFS has about 40% of it Members with perfectly acceptable solutions for NEXT weekend.  At least it is not looking like a torch for next weekend.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel-1314400.png

That's a positive ensemble run. The one constant I take away from this is the look to our NW. Theres enough cold for snow and 60-70% of members give western Maryland/pa some snow. Which to me means that there something can break a little more in our favor (inside 3-4 days). Just a WAG

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z Can. Ens. has about 30 percent for NEXT weekend.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_total_multimember_panel-1292800.png

Same thoughts. Like the look to our NW. Way better than a shut out, raging SE ridge look

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The euro took a substantial jump nw. Not enough but noteworthy.

Ninja'd. I noticed the same. The trough is sharper but our wave is not tucked. Little too late. It will be cool if something popped inside 3 days

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

yes took us from drier to dry

Haha, that's too funny

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

No offense, but if you aren't interested in following the models and what could or could not happen, regardless of where you live and how big or small the unicorn is, then please don't comment anymore in this thread. 

This is a weather discussion thread and not solely a model affirmation thread 

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

The latest Euro is showing exactly what we want to see for this weekend. Notice the deep, deep drop we are now seeing in a very favorable locale for our region. If we were to see that SS energy/system lag back another 6-12 hours we might very well be talking game on.

 

 

Showme to the rescue -- I don't care if you have to fudge the dates and post old snowmaps...anything to pull folks back from full tilt....

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

The latest Euro is showing exactly what we want to see for this weekend. Notice the deep, deep drop we are now seeing in a very favorable locale for our region. If we were to see that SS energy/system lag back another 6-12 hours we might very well be talking game on.

 

155356986_NSdrop.gif.8155edbe2cb9dee9bc487d84c63ed41d.gif

 

why would the SS energy lag back 6-12 hours? thats an eternity? 

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Just now, Ji said:

why would the SS energy lag back 6-12 hours? thats an eternity? 

zZ5eM_oM_bigger.jpgcrankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 34m34 minutes ago
Lead system hasn't moved much if at all. Our incoming storm is starting to slow in response. The kicker won't. Eye on the lead system and how the storm system behaves in kind in its wake the next 24-30 hours. Refer to Videos for "why" that matters (1 of 2 capture related issues).
EPYzodTWoAEOaCS.png
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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

 

 

Ok.  Have at it, y'all.  Its all yours.  Enjoy winter.

if they only realized how it drives decent posters away......

 

..........so in other weather news, GFS came towards the Euro, and the Euro came towards the GFS (ish).  I still think this is in play for many, as we've seen too many jogs north in the last few years to ignore.

does anyone know if they worked out the north trend in the new and improved FV3

 

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2 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

 

Light banter keeps EVERYTHING readable.. If you have a problem with having to cruise past a couple banter posts when a full page is like 20 posts long, then the stick is very far up....lol

Bring on the heat. It's that type of winter..... it will snow in 2020 wink wink

that might not even be the warmest day of next week lol

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Just now, MountainGeek said:
zZ5eM_oM_bigger.jpgcrankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 34m34 minutes ago
Lead system hasn't moved much if at all. Our incoming storm is starting to slow in response. The kicker won't. Eye on the lead system and how the storm system behaves in kind in its wake the next 24-30 hours. Refer to Videos for "why" that matters (1 of 2 capture related issues).
EPYzodTWoAEOaCS.png

I still think this is more of an interesting situation for Cranky's backyard (Eastern NE) than here, but I still think this one's worth casually monitoring for another day or two.

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