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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We can't even get a 10 day digital snow right.  The 6z beauty just slid south.   Still early to give up on winter though.  

Yeah, looks like the trough doesn't quite dig as much as the 06Z did (or the other couple of previous cycles that had a good event).  So it doesn't get going really  until it's well offshore and it doesn't "turn the corner" much up the coast for us.  But...the idea is still there at that range, and has been for a little while now.  Guess that's all we can ask at this point.

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6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Nobody talking about the #2 model in the world? :lol:

D60EC9C0-1EA7-4BD4-A1CA-02561DA9B326.jpeg

Lol. Looks like the gfs and ggem traded places.

As @WinterWxLuvr stated probably wont know for another day or 2.

Wouldn't surprise me if we get some precip from the system. Always seems to trend north as we close in. 

Tenps are brutal. Not sure the precip would be white though lol.

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i still think the weekend threat has room to move north if that ss vort can slow down a notch, but temps are definitely not ideal.  mght need a wrapped up, feb 87 system to succeed with this one.  we need a better look up top in regards to cold/hp (where the clippers at??), otherwise we're going to continue wasting precip.

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18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We can't even get a 10 day digital snow right.  The 6z beauty just slid south.   Still early to give up on winter though.  

But why does where it ended up matter at this point? The idea if an stj wave (if I'm labeling it correctly) and a NS wave being in the same vicinity is still there (and the idea of the cold air mass being better this time). For Day 10, I think that's just fine

13 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, looks like the trough doesn't quite dig as much as the 06Z did (or the other couple of previous cycles that had a good event).  So it doesn't get going really  until it's well offshore and it doesn't "turn the corner" much up the coast for us.  But...the idea is still there at that range, and has been for a little while now.  Guess that's all we can ask at this point.

Precisely. Really, I think I've mentally moved on from this weekend...and instead am looking at it as the start of the next tracking IF this look is still there by Friday.

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I don't even care if the storm this weekend hits...its a super long shot hail mary...I just want the possibility of it to linger long enough for the next legit threat to get closer before everyone has to turn their attention 100% to that...so we don't have to have these melt down's with every minor adjustment at day 8/9/10 ....

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28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We can't even get a 10 day digital snow right.  The 6z beauty just slid south.   Still early to give up on winter though.  

Trust me...we want it south on the GFS at this range...its been too cold all winter at range.  If the euro goes suppressed consistently then I will worry a bit more...still not much at that range.  The EPS is all over the place shotgun style right now with that storm.  

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1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Got it, thanks

sorry...don't mean to be short.  People are having melt downs over very op run fluctuation...going crazy over a threat this weekend we KNEW was very very very low odds to begin with... jumping to conclusions before the whole model suite including ensembles comes in... over reacting to things that weren't even a big deal.  That wave next week was ALWAYS a cutter...every run of every model took it way north of us for the last 5 days yet suddenly today people started making a big deal about that for some reason???!!!  Worrying about a shift on an op run at day 9... everyone is acting full tilt right now because it hasn't snowed.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

sorry...don't mean to be short.  People are having melt downs over very op run fluctuation...going crazy over a threat this weekend we KNEW was very very very low odds to begin with... jumping to conclusions before the whole model suite including ensembles comes in... over reacting to things that weren't even a big deal.  That wave next week was ALWAYS a cutter...every run of every model took it way north of us for the last 5 days yet suddenly today people started making a big deal about that for some reason???!!!  Worrying about a shift on an op run at day 9... everyone is acting full tilt right now because it hasn't snowed.  

No issues, I look forward to your analysis daily. BLUF, it just has not been cold enough this Winter when moisture is in place.

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35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The UKIE just totally capitulated to the euro. If this works out like the euro has shown then it’s quite an affirmation of just how good it is.

Yea except I am sure some clown will point out how it had that one run at day 9 where it bombed us with snow to show its crap and models suck blah blah blah

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3 hours ago, Zanclidae said:

Methinks the only operas that are going to be sung are Madama Butterfly, given the trends.

But hey, who knows?  We still have plenty of time for PDIII and even SSII (1993 redux).

So there's that!

La Boheme or La Traviata might be a better match for this cold season. At the end of those, I believe, the “fat man” had  the final note. As always ..........

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

sorry...don't mean to be short.  People are having melt downs over very op run fluctuation...going crazy over a threat this weekend we KNEW was very very very low odds to begin with... jumping to conclusions before the whole model suite including ensembles comes in... over reacting to things that weren't even a big deal.  That wave next week was ALWAYS a cutter...every run of every model took it way north of us for the last 5 days yet suddenly today people started making a big deal about that for some reason???!!!  Worrying about a shift on an op run at day 9... everyone is acting full tilt right now because it hasn't snowed.  

I'm glad some level heads still prevail on these boards....My forum is about to go full tilt meltdown.  I'm glad some realize we are here to discuss the good bad and meh...regardless of how much of the bad we've already had to discuss.  Keep it up.  

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yea its not going to snow this winter. We had 2 chances this week. The bob Chill Storm was a great chance and that fizzled so you think the one behind it turns into something and that fizzles....we dont even get a chance to get precipitation to see what could happen. its just not going to snow.....the other events in this "new pattern" will not work out and we all know it. 

get ready to drive people...thats the only way you are seeing snow

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