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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm convinced this window (Feb 6-14) will produce something decent to track, maybe our best chance of the season. It may be more narrow of a range than I posted and could be a one and done situation, but this season I don't think anyone would complain.

Yeah when I said 'next week', I meant beginning next week(around midweek) when we get some legit cold moving in for the first time in forever. Hopefully we get a week to 10 day window before the Pac ridge retros, mean trough pulls back west, and we SE ridge again. Or maybe the ensembles are wrong about that look and we roll into deep winter. lol.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah when I said 'next week', I meant beginning next week(around midweek) when we get some legit cold moving in for the first time in forever. Hopefully we get a week to 10 day window before the Pac ridge retros, mean trough pulls back west, and we SE ridge again. Or maybe the ensembles are wrong about that look and we roll into deep winter. lol.

I'm definitely not sold on any long duration deep winter look. Seems everything is progressive after the 'window' with a return to a +NAO, +AO, and a building SE Ridge Western trof regime. But who knows...sometimes the -NAO can be stubborn to kick out this time of year once it gets established. 

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37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm convinced this window (Feb 6-14) will produce something decent to track, maybe our best chance of the season. It may be more narrow of a range than I posted and could be a one and done situation, but this season I don't think anyone would complain.

Yeah that time period usually works for us.  

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51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

May not look it on the surface for this weekend'a possibilities but we saw an important change at 500's on both the Euro and the CMC dealing with the trailing NS energy. Will post something shortly explaining what I am talking about.

Getting my coffee now!   I think the idea this amplified more is still alive but I understand the people on the coastal plain being blah about it. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place because of the lack of cold. It will be very hard to keep the boundary layer cold enough absent an absolutely perfect deform thump east of the fall line. 

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What we saw on the overnight EPS and the CMC was that they are handling the trailing NS energy differently then they have been the last few days. What we were seeing was them tracking that energy across southern Canada before dropping it southward through the lakes (red line). That is if they even dropped it at all. The overnight runs though are now seeing it dropping down much farther to the west through North Dakota (black line) which is in a much more favorable locale for possibly phasing in the east. Not only that but they are also picking up on this energy being stronger then on previous runs. They are pretty much moving once again toward a look that drew my attention to this time period a week ago. But, no surprise here, the GEFS after having this farther west drop the last few days now has moved away from that on the overnight run. Go figure. :lol:

Now this is important to hopefully get cold air in play for our possibly storm otherwise we are probably pretty much sucking wind for our snow chances outside of those with elevation. Now there is much more in play besides this NS drop. If you notice that big blob of energy down in the south as well as that stream of energy (blue line) running down into it. What happens there will also play a big part in determining the final outcome. If we can see some sort of phasing between all the different packets of energy as to where we can get a strong shortwave on the base of the trough this will help to draw southward the NS energy hopefully putting it in a better position for a possible phase. But as far as what we will eventually get down in the south, I have no idea. Just to much going on to get a clear picture.

One last thing I will point out. The shortwave in the northern portion of the trough (?). Right now it is basically playing traffic cop and shunting the NS energy southward. So the stronger the shortwave the farther west and the deeper the drop of the NS energy. But this could also play as a wildcard if we can see a much deeper drop as to where it starts influencing the southern portion of the trough (eta: It also may help to get colder air southward as well).

 

EPSvort.gif.97e215424d285d4b17edea9eb26daf45.gif

 

There is really a lot going on and to think the models have it nailed down at this time is probably wishful thinking. Now do I believe we are going to see a snowstorm for our region? Probably not as I would probably put the odds on the low end as we need too see much go right. But is it possible? Sure is.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Anyweather said:

I can’t help but post this. Hope it verifies. 

F351B036-0C0F-444D-81A8-C421A98C4949.png

The window and the blinds are open. Far way off but good to see ops teasing individual events now during this time frame. I do think we should be realistic and keep in mind that even tho a favorable window is presenting itself, we can still pass it by with nothing to show. Even in a good setup the odds are often stacked against us. I'm optimistic however but keeping everything in check. Let's get past the SB weekend tracking first and see how that plays out.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah when I said 'next week', I meant beginning next week(around midweek) when we get some legit cold moving in for the first time in forever. Hopefully we get a week to 10 day window before the Pac ridge retros, mean trough pulls back west, and we SE ridge again. Or maybe the ensembles are wrong about that look and we roll into deep winter. lol.

That look at the very end is far from great but it’s more workable than we’ve had. We’re looking to get lucky at this point. Any sustained good pattern is unlikely given the pacific pattern this year. Maybe in March. But that look could work if we get an ejection of tightly spaced progressive waves. Something like March 2015. There was a 2-4” snow in Feb 2018 that followed that progression also. I could list off more. But a lot of times those type waves hit just north of us like the one in February 2017 orearly Feb 2014 where caboose waves gave south central PA 6-10” and DC/BWI rain. The risk we get skunked is there and it’s higher the further SE you go. That’s not a good look at all if you’re in Richmond or NC.  But it’s a look we sometimes snow in. Kinda crappy is better then totally crappy. 

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1 minute ago, Anyweather said:

The 0z cmc at 240 hrs shows Heavy precipitation in the southeast and a strong CAD. 

Not sure that look is a classic setup tbh but it's one op at range so take it with a grain of salt. Progressive ns shortwave near the lakes and a digging trof in the central plains trying to pinch closed an ULL while pumping heights out ahead.

gem_z500_vort_us_41.png

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34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe in March.

There are  some potential reasons, as discussed last week, that March may deliver this year. 

I would not be surprised in the least to see snow totals in March greater than December 1 st to Feb 29th  in our region "if " we do not score in Feb with a significant event of 6 inches or more. 

Yeah, that is not saying much , but if March were to deliver it might lend a little ammo to the belief winter starts later and either ends later or gets invigorated later in the season. ie late season blocking 

I don't see a March 2018 at this time. But, you never know. Why would an anomalous Davis Straights block develop, but I leave the door open. But March seems a good period as some mentioned this in seasonal forecasts. 

It is certainly possible the EPO stays neutral or positive through March and the AO stays neutral to positive as well. But, like you mentioned psu some things do give some hope that this March may have a favorable period. 

If by mid Feb we see the NAM state begin to change in our favor, and if Canada is very cold, that might be a clue that March can deliver. If the NAM remains neutral than the cold is locked up t our North with the continuation of the fast progressive /cutter flow and at most short intervals of cooler air in a slightly above temp. regime.        

Just some speculation. 

 

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Hopefully in a week and past Eastern Canada will be colder . Again ,take these deviations to heart as to what they mean, and yes Canada is cold, however what I am looking for, and hoping for, is getting a colder air mass to develop to our North in early to mid Feb and then to move South into our region.   

tenday.gif

 

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Just heard Lizzo on the radio, so its over

Hilarious..... I am showing my age.  This was an expression used by Dick Motta when the Washington Bullets won the NBA Championship in 1978.  I guess someone will move this to Banter but we are between model runs....I will sing an opera if we get a 6 inch storm this year.

 

Image result for bullets championship opera not over until the fat lady oakland

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At least the Models are all agreeing on an upcoming active pattern. Maybe none of those storms work out for us. But I would be shocked if that happened during our prime climo. I would bet heavily that my area gets hit at least once in the next couple of weeks. I would never bet anything when it comes to DCA and snow though. :) 

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Not that I am particularly an ICON fan but it does throw out a pretty snowfall map from this mornings run for those N and W of the cities. This is all SS (southern stream) driven.

*It's a 10-1 map so chances are very good the totals are over inflated considering the temp profile leading into and during the storm.

iconsnowmap.gif.bc6c53985874096dd4d5fd4d6534abaa.gif

 

 

This looks like more than just the windshield wiper effect. Keeps trending N and W.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh99_trend-1.gif

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Hilarious..... I am showing my age.  This was an expression used by Dick Motta when the Washington Bullets won the NBA Championship in 1978.  I guess someone will move this to Banter but we are between model runs....I will sing an opera if we get a 6 inch storm this year.

 

Image result for bullets championship opera not over until the fat lady oakland

Lol..Ive heard the phrase but not about the bullets.  Maybe theyll set up a special radio show for ya if we get that 6"

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