Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Did PD2 500mb pattern have a rather significant SE Ridge? Or am I thinking of some other significant past Feb storm?

I know there was a HP over the NE that wouldnt budge and a train of moisture feeding almost in a perfect northern trajectory. And it kept back filling.  That radar was a thing of beauty.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At some point, we have to realize that no matter what the track is, we are missing a key ingredient.  It's going to be tough to get a snowstorm without cold air.

Unfortunately...man, this is gonna be a tough one to miss. Any other time...we'd be set with this track. But this is the one late January day where we, for whatever reason, have difficulty bringing in cold air, smh If we can't pull off a bit of a miracle here...man I hope the better look the following week continues to move forward in time and we can cash in on that...because this is getting kinda ridiculous even for us!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At some point, we have to realize that no matter what the track is, we are missing a key ingredient.  It's going to be tough to get a snowstorm without cold air.

Stoopid south winds at the surface to above 850 leading in is a fatal flaw. It's the reason I've never been in on this one. It's a very depressing event if the gfs is right. Can't buy a winter airmass when it counts this year

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone needs to come crash up here for the weekend. 

BBD1A673-5D00-41CE-B605-3071C1F0C432.thumb.png.8fcae4d24c44f541ed0112e899336594.png

that highlights stormtrackers point though. When it’s struggling to get to 32 at 1100 feet with that track...at sea level it’s going to be a struggle. Only way is to get it to bomb and deform the crap out of 95. 1” hr+ rates would be needed. 

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Stoopid south winds at the surface to above 850 leading in is a fatal flaw. It's the reason I've never been in on this one. It's a very depressing event if the gfs is right. Can't buy a winter airmass when it counts this year

If it were to play out like GFS do you think far western areas of VA like bath county could manage a decent snowfall?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

If it were to play out like GFS do you think far western areas of VA like bath county could manage a decent snowfall?

It's possible but requires all models being wrong on temps from 3000 feet to the surface. This should be a good snow event. Any modest winter airmass should get it done. This year has a knack for never being cold enough when it counts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I noticed that ggem and gfs Thursday at 12z have a 10 degree difference..anyway...I'm more upset about the chill storm getting sheared ]

 

8611bc56c8eee73587060a153eacd74a.jpg

Good pickup JI. 540 line looks to stay se of 81 corridor at minimum. Problem is GGEM has low much further east of MYR than GFS at around the same juncture. Something to keep an eye on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Stoopid south winds at the surface to above 850 leading in is a fatal flaw. It's the reason I've never been in on this one. It's a very depressing event if the gfs is right. Can't buy a winter airmass when it counts this year

Because of the way the stj wave interacts with the NS it’s like a miller b. The stj wave is just an extension of the trough. It has no closed circulation and light precip initially. Might as well pretend it doesn’t exist because it sent get the job done until it phases and starts to bomb. Once that happens and it develops a healthy circulation with a commahead then it could work. But that process simply happens just north of DC. Kind of miller b like in that respect. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Because of the way the stj wave interacts with the NS it’s like a miller b. The stj wave is just an extension of the trough. It has no closed circulation and light precip initially. Might as well pretend it doesn’t exist because it sent get the job done until it phases and starts to bomb. Once that happens and it develops a healthy circulation with a commahead then it could work. But that process simply happens just north of DC. Kind of miller b like in that respect. 

The hp to the north is like a day and a half too old. Skips east at the perfect time to ruin what would be a chance for a big storm. The last snow to rain deal could have easily been 2-6" before flipping. We're getting some decent looking precip makers this winter but keep failing on temps. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not crazy about the long wave pattern the global ensembles are continuing to advertise in the LR. Looks familiar. I know some may see a gradient pattern and think we could be on the "right" side, but not sure how one convinces themselves it will work out that way given that practically every storm this winter has tracked too far NW to snow here. Could work out if the GEFS is correct, but the Canadian ens looks especially crappy. More waiting and watching. Next week may be our hail mary window lol.

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not that I am particularly an ICON fan but it does throw out a pretty snowfall map from this mornings run for those N and W of the cities. This is all SS (southern stream) driven.

*It's a 10-1 map so chances are very good the totals are over inflated considering the temp profile leading into and during the storm.

iconsnowmap.gif.bc6c53985874096dd4d5fd4d6534abaa.gif

 

 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Next week may be our hail mary window lol.

I'm convinced this window (Feb 6-14) will produce something decent to track, maybe our best chance of the season. It may be more narrow of a range than I posted and could be a one and done situation, but this season I don't think anyone would complain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm convinced this window (Feb 6-14) will produce something decent to track, maybe our best chance of the season. It may be more narrow of a range than I posted and could be a one and done situation, but this season I don't think anyone would complain.

Agreed.  WB EURO and GFS look like they like the end of next week.

14192C69-66CC-4CEB-B1B7-0EFAE437A1AF.png

7E6B257C-B2CB-400E-90FB-F30FA05C0E98.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...