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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, yoda said:
Yeah, but its southern stream driven with little northern stream interaction is what I am seeing in the SNE thread... which def would suggest problems

I looked at 00z smh

you should do better at looking at the correct runs

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1 minute ago, Mersky said:

I have heard that mentioned over the years but the truth is no. Being number one and number two in verification scores has more to do with it. 

Got it. Thanks. Just hoping things go well with the King now. I really feel like we are still a day or two away from sealing our fate for better or worse. Seems like quite a few moving pieces currently.

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57 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

All show examples of weather  but no predictive emphasis to it

 

In the past when you would look at a setup that is 48 hours away...and you break down our odds of this or that based on the barometric pressure... you are using the guidance.  Otherwise you would have no freaking idea exactly what our barometric pressure would be in 48 hours...or what the pressure at Pittsburgh would be...or anywhere else.   Your tools and application of very sound methodology are great...but they would have absolutely no predictive worth beyond about 24 hours without NWP because its impossible to extrapolate the atmosphere very far out in time without the aid of computers.  Some of the best minds used to try back before NWP  and it was mostly a disaster of busted forecasts.  

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16 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Define a few please

sure:

a few


A small number of persons or things. This phrase can differ slightly from few used alone, which means “not many.” For example, The party was to end at eight, but a few stayed on indicates that a small number of guests remained, whereas The party began at eight, and few attended means that hardly any guests came. [Late 1200s] Also see quite a bit (few).

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Just now, mappy said:

sure:

a few


A small number of persons or things. This phrase can differ slightly from few used alone, which means “not many.” For example, The party was to end at eight, but a few stayed on indicates that a small number of guests remained, whereas The party began at eight, and few attended means that hardly any guests came. [Late 1200s] Also see quite a bit (few).

Take this to the banter thread please.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

The Euro with white rain pity flakes at the end of this run.   I'm exhausted.  That's six days of Feb gone if the Euro is right...which, thankfully, that won't be the final solution. 

It wont...but no matter what happens this weekend was always and still is a very low probability proposition.  After that we ridge out for a couple days as the initial dump of the AK cold airmass comes into the midwest.  So barring some crazy good luck with this weekend thing...we likely are going to have to hope the very good pattern look after Feb 5th is correct and we can score something.  Frankly odds wise our chances of snow remain about the same from Feb 1 through March 10th...then go down very dramatically after that.  We still have some time to at least save something out of this dreadful winter.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It wont...but no matter what happens this weekend was always and still is a very low probability proposition.  After that we ridge out for a couple days as the initial dump of the AK cold airmass comes into the midwest.  So barring some crazy good luck with this weekend thing...we likely are going to have to hope the very good pattern look after Feb 5th is correct and we can score something.  Frankly odds wise our chances of snow remain about the same from Feb 1 through March 10th...then go down very dramatically after that.  We still have some time to at least save something out of this dreadful winter.  

Oh, I've moved on from the weekend thing since Saturday.

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The Euro with white rain pity flakes at the end of this run.   I'm exhausted.  That's six days of Feb gone if the Euro is right...which, thankfully, that won't be the final solution. 

we got 40 inches of snow between Feb 5 and Feb 12 in 2010...relax bro...plus the euro spit out 2 huge inches on day 10

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Oh, I've moved on from the weekend thing since Saturday.

problem is there will likely be a few days of dead space behind it also... there could maybe be a little NS vort diving in behind if it ends up not phasing that could bring a clipper type snow.  That kind of thing wouldnt show up at range...but Ive seen hints that is possible.  But other then a fluke type thing like that...after the weekend we have to wait for the dump of cold getting ejected out of AK.  As that presses down into the midwest there will be the natural see saw effect on the longwave pattern and we will ridge here so that first wave will most likely go to our north...maybe so far to our north we don't even get any precip from it.  It's after...later that next week that things could get interesting starting with the chance at a trailing wave along the front and then see if the STJ wants to play nice after that.  

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