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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the overall pattern Not support a big storm idea?!? 

 

The robust Pac jet is causing issues yet again, similar to other times this winter, and last winter as well.  Still way out in time though. 

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol

As long as we have the potential the following weekend...because then I could possibly take a fail on this. I don't want this to be the only halfway workable window we get...makes it more nerve-wracking tracking this one, lol

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5 hours ago, Scraff said:

We toss! Lol, but how is this not a good look? Am I missing something? Of course I am. 

B10CD472-6C95-4101-8CB1-38205CEBC94C.jpeg

Ridge axis is too Far East doesn’t allow our trough to tilt the way we need it to. But yea man, realllll close

3 hours ago, Ji said:

I'll take blue over green most times48da110764013562907be4c40e445888.jpg

Anything at this point would be ok. Even a sloppy two inches. It’s the times we live in ugh lol

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

GEPS agrees with the GEFS with no southern storm next weekend. Both 12z ops showed a big hit but their ensembles strongly disagree. 

Not too worried about ensembles. There’s so many different scenarios in the game attm. You obviously know this better than most.. for general information though.. it’s possible and that’s all we can ask for 

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11 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Not too worried about ensembles. There’s so many different scenarios in the game attm. You obviously know this better than most.. for general information though.. it’s possible and that’s all we can ask for 

Looking at all guidance as a whole there is growing evidence making the case that next weekend is a phantom irt a big snowstorm (or any decent snow event). I'm not writing it off yet but I've lost most of my interest in it for now. Gut instinct is telling me the cmc/gfs/icon ops are going to lose the big snowy coastal solutions in the near future. It's very complicated so run over run volatility will remain. I've seen this happen a number of times in the past. When ens completely disagree with their ops in the medium range the ops usually cave. Maybe it will break the other way for once. We'll see. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol

It's probably unlikely...12z on the whole trended the wrong way.  But since the critical feature now is a northern stream one that does make me a little more hesitant to close the door since even King Euro struggles with the exact details on those.  The STJ on its own isn't going to get it done though... not enough is ejecting and there is way too much going on on top of it...so the key is does the NS dig enough to phase and pull it up.  The euro gets the NS shortwave out ahead and so it squashes it.  It's all about timing and how much the NS digs...and I would definitely trust the euro along with ensembles over the GEM/GFS ops with that...but its a tricky enough thing that I am not totally 100 percent putting it to bed.  But I am only keeping one eye on it...very much interested in the period after.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I knew I had seen the look at the end of the EPS before...

EPS

EPS.thumb.png.1a3e3fc5fff9f7bb1b4a3a0e2a98477d.png

March 4 2015

March2015.gif.af1607fe212ea65f5785b6cedd5c064b.gif

Feb 2 1996

Feb1996.gif.215a16969986df1b0fc6201390a9b463.gif

Right before 2 warning level events...there are other examples but those 2 stuck out in my memory from a similar pattern.  Both were similar, progressive waves along the boundary.  That look can work.  

Yeah, the snow mean jumps up on the eps between the 5th-9th. Do you think we get a cutter around the 2nd-3rd as the cold moves east? Looks like the initial cold push dumps west first. 

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