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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Solution Man said:

GFS colder @ 138

Yea...no real reason for it...it’s nearly an identical run to 6z in the progression of all the various waves. Impressively so for the complexity of this setup. But it simply adjusted the thermal profile a few degrees colder. At that range that isn’t rare. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea...no real reason for it...it’s nearly an identical run to 6z in the progression of all the various waves. Impressively so for the complexity of this setup. But it simply adjusted the thermal profile a few degrees colder. At that range that isn’t rare. 

Correct, seen it many times

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Just now, jaydreb said:

GFS brings us back from the brink of despair!

I apply my philosophy for Eagles games to long range model runs. You’re never as good as you think after a win and never as bad as you think after a loss.  Unless you’re a Redskins fan. Then you are as bad as you think. 

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This gfs run was even closer to the unicorn scenario @showmethesnow Highlighted this morning. Oh so close. 

You can see here the NS phases in slightly late. You can see the initial STJ wave out ahead there with the main NS dining into VA. If that had been a slightly cleaner capture we get that 980 low tucked in more are it’s the unicorn big snow scenario. Temps would have been “ok” on this run we needed a slightly better phase and tucked solution to turn it into a big one. 

27A2433B-71E8-49EE-9CE7-6F491A6D1B49.thumb.png.71ffb5af1f55441c1d7d9972abac7c01.png

That scenario is still low probability. So much has to go right. But the gfs op almost pulled it off so that probably means the idea isn’t totally dead. 

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4 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Even with the perfect track, it looks like a lot of white rain to me 

The phase was slightly late. The ccb deform doesn’t really get cranking because of that. It’s being pinched on its NW side by the unclean phase going on between the NS and SS systems. It was close to big though. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The phase was slightly late. The ccb deform doesn’t really get cranking because of that. It’s being pinched on its NW side by the unclean phase going on between the NS and SS systems. It was close to big though. 

Yeah, I guess I’m just not sure how much potential this really holds even if everything does go perfect. What’s the top bar here? 3-6” of wet paste?

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The phase was slightly late. The ccb deform doesn’t really get cranking because of that. It’s being pinched on its NW side by the unclean phase going on between the NS and SS systems. It was close to big though. 

Yup, damn that is remarkably close to a nice phase.  But even missing that, white rain I suppose is better than rain only at this point.  Maybe.  I'm sure we'll see something different in a few hours, so many small details out there several days in advance.

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming.  How does it dump 6"+ over the area??  I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still.

I will buy when it lays on the ground

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Wait...so I haven't delved into what the GGEM shows, but just looking at the image posted above by @Chris78, I would have thought all or mostly rain incoming.  How does it dump 6"+ over the area??  I know, I know...snow maps and all that, but still.

Looks like early enough phasing and we get some deform love.

Oh and its the  ggem lol

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