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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

The gfs cant seem to spit out a consistent track in any run...but the result is all the same...rain. but it's gone from suppressed today to coastal to cutter. Worthless model. No wonder its dropped below the ggem

And that right there should tell you all you need to know.   I'm quickly fading from this one. We've had 13,000 different solutions and all of them end up the same for us.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Gfs started looking crappier by hr96. If you compare the gfs and cmc with the  wed-thurs deep south wave they are far apart and it's not long range. CMC verification scores are better so that means toss the gfs and hug the cmc... unless cmc is worse

Bob what would we need to see from the CMC to be a bigger deal for the first wave. Does a weird jump from Arkansas down into southern Alabama in a 6 hr increment and then strengthens rapidly east of CHS. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Bob what would we need to see from the CMC to be a bigger deal for the first wave. Does a weird jump from Arkansas down into southern Alabama in a 6 hr increment and then strengthens rapidly east of CHS. 

CMC is going to be waaay different than the gfs or icon. It's all northern stream with no southern. Kinda like the 18z euro control run...

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Gefs looks better for the storm that the cmc doesn't have now. Still a minority group showing anything meaninful east of the mountains.

It gets really busy beyond that time. Most of the big hits are believable coastals or overrunners and not jacked up weird storms. Would be nice if additional threats pop up to take the sting out of next weekend if it goes the wrong way

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I don’t see a lot of upper air pattern maps posted in here. Probably because you guys are too busy chasing actual snowstorms. It seems us SE guys only chase patterns supporting snow and not the actual snow itself. Anyways, here’s a pattern map for you guys to mull over. Us southeastern guys like to call it “Spring”.3F912CBF-3474-4567-B0D2-4FF9E9608EEA.thumb.jpeg.832fb54093cbb92581d49723d72586a5.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

I don’t see a lot of upper air pattern maps posted in here. Probably because you guys are too busy chasing actual snowstorms. It seems us SE guys only chase patterns supporting snow and not the actual snow itself. Anyways, here’s a pattern map for you guys to mull over. Us southeastern guys like to call it “Spring”.

Upper air maps are posted here plenty.

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As usual, nice writeup by NWS Sterling:

Two strong cyclogenesis events will occur in the poleward exit
region of the North Pacific Jet during the Tuesday through Thursday
time period. These cyclogenesis events will lead to strong
ridgebuilding downstream across the western CONUS, while also
encouraging a shortwave to dig southward toward TX/Northern Mexico
by late Thursday into Friday. Multiple additional disturbances will
descend down the front side of the developing ridge and interact
with the aforementioned shortwave. The result of interactions
between these disturbances remains highly uncertain. Possibilities
range from phasing between the disturbances, development of a deep
longwave trough, and the formation of a coastal low, to a cutoff
shortwave suppressed well to our south, with predominantly dry
conditions. With significant spread in both deterministic and
ensemble guidance, confidence in any given solution is very low at
this time, with both timing and amount of precipitation in the late
week/weekend period very much up in the air.
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3 hours ago, WarmNose said:

I don’t see a lot of upper air pattern maps posted in here. Probably because you guys are too busy chasing actual snowstorms. It seems us SE guys only chase patterns supporting snow and not the actual snow itself. Anyways, here’s a pattern map for you guys to mull over. Us southeastern guys like to call it “Spring”.3F912CBF-3474-4567-B0D2-4FF9E9608EEA.thumb.jpeg.832fb54093cbb92581d49723d72586a5.jpeg

There isnt another op nor ens means outside of the euro family that shows such a trof (-pna) in the west at that time. Old euro bias of digging energy and holding it out West too long? 

gfs_z500a_us_40.png

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In addition to my post above. Larry Cosgrove seem to think the pattern/models is pointing to another milder month here in February and also doesn't think any kid blocking will be present at least thru most of March.  On a positive note, he still believes we will turn colder and have a backloaded winter (his opinion), we'll see.

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The morning GFS spit out a solution that was oh so close to potentially a very good outcome for our region. Typically don't give much weight to op runs vs. ensembles outside of 5 days but in this case with the key players on the field just outside of 5 days and the op runs finer details with smaller scale features vs the smoothing of the ensembles i might make an exception.

Below we have the vort map leading into our east coast storm. We have 3 pieces of energy to take note of (North stream, Mid-stream and a Southern stream). What we see here just misses from being a triple phaser in a very favorable location for our region. What we have is the MS dropping down the backside of the SS with the NS waiting in the wings in a favorable locale to drop down the backside of any potentially phasing of the MS and SS. Unfortunately what we see on this run is that the SS escapes too quickly to the east and the MS misses it. This leaves the NS dropping down with a shallower drop and we see no phasing between any of them. You can see the result on the second map below.

But as I said, this was oh so close. Slow that SS energy down by 6 hours or speed up the MS by 6 and we do see a phase between the MS and the SS. We see that initial phase and then then chances are good we would see a deeper drop from the NS as it gets drawn into the initial phase giving us a triple phaser in a favorable locale for our region. Now I know the issue is/has been the temps leading into the system. But if we were in fact to see a triple phase with the general overall trough setup displayed below I don't think temps would be an issue besides the initial onset of any precip. Would probably be a case of rain to wet snow to dry powder. And this is due to the fact we would see the NS bring with it the colder air needed in the upper levels. Biggest initial handicap would be the lower and surface level temps but more then likely they would be quickly overcome. Now you may look at the surface compared to the upper levels and say, 'but the surface low pressure is already exiting the scene before the cold air can arrive. But if you look at the second map below what we are seeing is that the low pressure is forming on the lead SS energy that is running ahead of everything else. BUT... if we had seen that SS 6 hours slower with a phase. We would see that surface low delayed as well giving time for the cold to catch up to it. Conversely, if we had seen a 6 hour quicker MS energy and phase with the SS chances are good we would see a quicker response eastward from the NS and bringing the cold with it. Pure conjecture on my part, but if we would have seen slower SS energy (quicker MS) I could very well have seen this end up being a bombing low somewhere between OBX and OC as the 500's catch up and start stacking to the surface with a track leading up to the bench mark.

 

gfs126.gif.2d3c4ab2dcfbdcbf1ac46187b812ad47.gif

 

 

gfs144.gif.36b6bbaf82601d9c7f883939b8485f10.gif

 

 

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