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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

And now it goes and cuts the thing? Lolol Unless other guidance starts showing that again...the GFS don't know what it's doin' on this one!

This morning/overnight we were seeing sliders and misses to the east.  Now we are seeing hits and cutters.  This is normal for 6+ days out.  Models are showing the goalposts.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Ji said:
Gfs looks so different and better

Oh well I thought the quicker would be better...didn't expect cutter again lol

 

Just now, jaydreb said:

It did look like it would be better, but the track sucked.  

Upper levels amplified way too far west given the lack of blocking or cold in front. It was another solution where if we had a truly cold airmass or some blocking that progression would be a 3-6” snow to mix solution but with what we are working with just rain. 

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

This morning/overnight we were seeing sliders and misses to the east.  Now we are seeing hits and cutters.  This is normal for 6+ days out.  Models are showing the goalposts.  

Starting to wonder if cutter may be the first solution to go as the goalposts narrow.....we shall see. (And I also wonder if the cutter solution is just the GFS trying to figure out the quicker timing? Eh, I don't know...just wild guessin', lol)

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Just now, Ji said:

The gfs cant seem to spit out a consistent track in any run...but the result is all the same...rain. but it's gone from suppressed today to coastal to cutter. Worthless model. No wonder its dropped below the ggem

Right now it’s in last place among major globals...and that was even before the major cmc upgrade last week.   If that continues I wonder will there come a time the gfs becomes just a teaser like the icon as we wait for the big boys (cmc/UK/EC) to come in?  

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Right now it’s in last place among major globals...and that was even before the major cmc upgrade last week.   If that continues I wonder will there come a time the gfs becomes just a teaser like the icon as we wait for the big boys (cmc/UK/EC) to come in?  

I forgot who said this but the question was why do we keep investing in a model that is so inferior...we should of purchased the old euro...the one that ran once a day....even that ancient version is so much better than today's gfs

 

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