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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Que... “The icon really isn’t that bad of a model posts”

One of the keys to the weekend storm is timing. Slow it down and we lose our HPC and cold source and it cuts. Speeding it up seems like our best chance of frozen. Thoughts? 

6z GFS and 0z Euro both had suppressed sliders so who knows.  

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Right direction but another run that shows how marginal and thread the needle the situation is. Too far off the coast and you don’t get the rates and dynamics necessary to create the cold for snow. Too close to the coast and we torch enough for rain. Will be interesting to track next few days at the least 

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10 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

East Coast is above freezing all the way to Canada.  

Yup. Lock that up a week out. 

A classic late phase misses us hits NE job. We need the NS to slow down and dig behind the SS at just the right place for us to have a chance, if what the gfs just spit out is actually where things are headed. 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Meh.

But anyway, it looks like it's gonna miss to the south. But better than a wrapped up inside runner.

It’s possible. But the problem is either suppressed or a cutter are more likely outcomes than the perfect combo we need. If the stj wave doesn’t phase its going to increase the chances it stays south because that ridge in Canada is pretty far south. If it phases because there is no cold we need the phase to happen in exactly the right place and time or we get too much southerly flow and rain.  Typically in a setup like this we might have 50% of the viable likely permutations be snow outcomes. But with the current modeled airmass it’s more like 20%. But sometimes the 20% hits. 

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Maybe that Canada low messed it up a little bit 

The 850 mb temps are ok. Bigger problem is that weak HP slides off the coast.  With the true arctic air bottled up well north, its going to take a perfect track, and a strong low to dynamically cool the column. IMO it is nearly impossible to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. Would literally take perfection. Could work out for the Piedmont, but even there just about everything would have come together just right.

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3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The 850 mb temps are ok. Bigger problem is that weak HP slides off the coast.  With the true arctic air bottled up well north, its going to take a perfect track, and a strong low to dynamically cool the column. IMO it is nearly impossible to get a snowstorm for the coastal plain. Would literally take perfection. Could work out for the Piedmont, but even there just about everything would have come together just right.

I don’t know what storm it was, would have been sometime in the early 90s, but there was a situation where a forecast for some light rain turned into a 3-6” snowstorm just west of philly because a storm amplified just enough to CCB thump and create its own cold. It was in one of those dreadful warm winters between 1988-1993.   A small area just west of 95 (I mean just west, I got maybe 1” in south NJ but we were visiting family friends that lived just southwest of Philly and they got 5”) but everywhere around even north was 40 degrees. That’s kind of what we need to happen here if there is no phase. 

If we get a NS phase that would inject true cold into the backside so the CCB wouldn’t have that problem but would also blast even more warmth up the east side so there would be no WAA snows ahead of it.  So we would need the perfect upper low phase and track. There are fatal flaws without supreme luck in both scenarios. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know what storm it was, would have been sometime in the early 90s, but there was a situation where a forecast for some light rain turned into a 3-6” snowstorm just west of philly because a storm amplified just enough to CCB thump and create its own cold. It was in one of those dreadful warm winters between 1988-1993.   A small area just west of 95 (I mean just west, I got maybe 1” in south NJ but we were visiting family friends that lived just southwest of Philly and they got 5”) but everywhere around even north was 40 degrees. That’s kind of what we need to happen here if there is no phase. 

If we get a NS phase that would inject true cold into the backside so the CCB wouldn’t have that problem but would also blast even more warmth up the east side so there would be no WAA snows ahead of it.  So we would need the perfect upper low phase and track. There are fatal flaws without supreme luck in both scenarios. 

Yeah that could always work, and produce localized heavy snow, in some cases east or south of places where precip is light/mixed and not accumulating. See that happen in early Spring storms sometimes. I would put that in the 5-10% probability at our latitude in this case. If this storm is going to deepen enough to CCB clobber a location, it will likely be to our NE.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If next year is anything like this year I'm retiring from this dumb hobby. I was semi retired in the fall but old habits die hard I suppose

Or you can cross the abyss into my world and get paid to do it. I enjoy your posts and expertise. If you and PSU Hoffman ever decide on a Met career I think you’d be a great asset to either WPC or CPC with your knack for pattern recognition and analysis. 

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs day 10 another shot . H5 looks better 

 Snark and skepticism aside that day 10 time period might be our best chance from all these flawed lottery ticket threats.  

As the pattern goes through it’s predictable every 2 week flip there is an actual window of opportunity. Even if we assume the progression is what we fear and we end up back in a pac ridge western trough nightmare, as the Hudson ridge progresses east there is a period where a shit of actual cold gets ejected from AK down behind the departing Canada ridge. That ridge then traverses the NAO domain (as Ralph pointed out) which will help press that cold into the east of only temporarily. Assuming we continue the wave train that would create a 3-5 day window of opportunity before the pac ridge dumps the next trough into the west and we ridge away. In theory that would be our best look of this god awful season. 

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