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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs doesn't look much different in the upper levels than the icon @ hr120. Should be a better run. Still an eternity away. Just need the building ridge out west to play nice

GFS has the look of something interesting.  Way more than previous run.  Look at the difference between this run and 12z

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I wish it was like 3 days closer. Lol. Ye ole rabbit hole won't get me... yet

Regardless of what it shows, the chaos has me interested.  Models making radical shifts every 6 hours is far more interesting, even if the end result is rain.    ETA:  The most interesting thing so far on this run of the GFS is the sudden appearance of a sprawling high pressure in Canada.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Regardless of what it shows, the chaos has me interested.  Models making radical shifts every 6 hours is far more interesting, even if the end result is rain.    ETA:  The most interesting thing so far on this run of the GFS is the sudden appearance of a sprawling high pressure in Canada.

Agree. It's slowly getting interesting again and under 10 days. There like 9 shortwaves and 6 surface lows on gfs. I'll go out on a limb and say it didn't just nail it... but it does show mostly rain so could be right.

 

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The Atlantic side keeping lower heights for days ....just need a vort to amplify and with sooo many in the flow one has to  get us Square in the next 10 days .

Looks like a good potential period there Jan 30-Feb 3 or so. But nothing "has to" get us square. See the appendix of the weenie handbook titled "How We Fail....Those Things We Do the Best"

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Canadian is a light to moderate event for a good bit of the forum until you get to that bullseye between dc and ric.   Yeah, right.   Anyway, it's not going to play out like that, but it's another model in the 'interesting" camp. 

Does it have credibility now that it passed America's latest engineering feat?

 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs loses chill storm in favor of a big cutter behind it

Next weekend actually has my interest somewhat. At least as far as how interested you can be with something 9/10 days out on the models. The models are starting to pick up on a piece of potent NS energy diving down into the US in a somewhat favorable local for our region. Pretty much will be dependent on what we see downstream in the south and the east coast leading into that NS drop. Lot of moving parts but the general idea is there for a pretty strong system somewhere in the east.  Of course the models could be out to lunch once again. 

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2 hours ago, Ji said:
5 hours ago, stormtracker said:
So, yeah..the Euro.   At this point, I'd take it.  Check please

All the storm needs now is precipitation and we good smh lol

It's normal that a closing ULL swings by right under us, a coastal low crawls  along the benchmark track for 2.5 days while deepening borderline bombing out and there is light precip all around. Happend all the time. Key features are there at this point....all that matters.

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