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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya don't say...thoughts? Lol

 

I always wonder about this kind of thing.  It is really in their best interest to make this kind of investment in NWP infrastructure and code?  What is to be gained here?  Why would they make this type of capital investment when they can just buy similar or better service from the ECMWF and NWS?  Wouldn't the investment $$ be better spent on sensor network density to feed into established, well-capitalized and run NWP ecosystems?

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14 minutes ago, das said:

I always wonder about this kind of thing.  It is really in their best interest to make this kind of investment in NWP infrastructure and code?  What is to be gained here?  Why would they make this type of capital investment when they can just buy similar or better service from the ECMWF and NWS?  Wouldn't the investment $$ be better spent on sensor network density to feed into established, well-capitalized and run NWP ecosystems?

Couldn’t that be true of everyone?  It probably would be more effective to pool global resources into one system and crate the best single combination. Yes there might need to be more than one model (or a beefed up ensemble system) but having tons of inferior models floating around just adds noise imo.  But getting that kind of coordination and cooperation is difficult in anything. 

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26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anything noteworthy on the EPS LR?

I haven't been paying much attention lately(deliberately) but a quick glance and not much seems to have changed in the LR. Still trying to kick out the AK vortex and replace it with a ridge. Maybe an attempt to shift the +heights over eastern Canada up into the NAO domain, but that's 15 days out and it looks weak. Basically, the pattern still looks hideous for snow chances in the MA outside of the far western highlands.

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Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15. 

1580904000-AI8MKygDMeo.png

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15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15. 

1580904000-AI8MKygDMeo.png

the blues have been stuck in the same place now since Dec 1...its not a terrible look but we havent scored with "not a terrible look" and there is no ridging in iceland/scandavian thats going to retrogarde  to a -NAO.. Were going to have to get lucky because it dosent want to even come close to snowing this winter. I think i am going to have to end up driving somewhere to see my first snow of the year

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

the blues have been stuck in the same place now since Dec 1...its not a terrible look but we havent scored with "not a terrible look" and there is no ridging in iceland/scandavian thats going to retrogarde  to a -NAO.. Were going to have to get lucky because it dosent want to even come close to snowing this winter. I think i am going to have to end up driving somewhere to see my first snow of the year

Ji, I already did, was skiing in Tahoe (Heavenly) over King Holiday. Plenty of snow there, we are relegated to driving or flying  to see it.

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16 minutes ago, Westendsnowguy said:

Close the blinds......all this over the top analysis that's been done for the last month has equaled squat.  For the next 15 days there is very very little intrigue or anything to be excited about. Facts are facts no matter how much wishcasting over analysis is done.

Analysis doesn’t make it snow. Maybe some of us enjoy analyzing the pattern no matter the outcome. 

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I haven't been paying much attention lately(deliberately) but a quick glance and not much seems to have changed in the LR. Still trying to kick out the AK vortex and replace it with a ridge. Maybe an attempt to shift the +heights over eastern Canada up into the NAO domain, but that's 15 days out and it looks weak. Basically, the pattern still looks hideous for snow chances in the MA outside of the far western highlands.

As has been case for the last few winters, we need to wait for the atmosphere to start shuffling in March and then hope for 30 days of winter before we enter chilly mud season. 

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5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I wouldnt give up yet if your in the west. Gfs is close.

Has my high on Friday in the upper 30's dropping down to the low 30's that night  

 

I thought the euro was close to a MD line event....especially the higher spots.  Wouldn't take a huge shift to get an accumulation along the N counties....or could just go the other way and put a fork in it.  

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Glass half full interpretation. Roll this forward and there is a favorably located -EPO, +PNA, and a neutral NAO. Problem is the last time I looked a few days ago, LR guidance looked pretty much the same out west. The idea of moving towards a better pattern kinda seems stuck around day 15. 

I feel like this has happened before... maybe recently...

Just brutal.

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