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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

The @Bob Chill storm is this weekend’s rainer on steroids.  

 

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Mercy no...we cannot have both of these storms rain. Because I'm telling you...I don't trust February this year. Nobody is talking about any kind of good pattern for next month...(and ya hear more about it NOT happening). And what psu mentioned a few weeks ago (and how often we DON'T get out of this kind of base stste) And then the Isotherm posts about things not getting right until late February at the earliest...and the usual caveats about Match snow. Nope...I don't trust it. So I'm keying in on both of these...and will remain highly suspect of February.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The weekend doesn’t seem to me to be straightforward and simple. Therefore I think it’s foolish to buy into any solution at this point.

Very true...it seems kinda wonky to me. If it were to somehow work out...I wouldn't be surprised if it's not until midweek before we see a trend to a snowy solution, lol

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29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The weekend doesn’t seem to me to be straightforward and simple. Therefore I think it’s foolish to buy into any solution at this point.

Say what? Ji canceled winter for the third time already this month tho

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24 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Tonight's EURO run must stop the bleeding and improve our snow chances for this weekend. The slp on the GFS this afternoon was pretty jumpy like it was unsure of what it was spitting out. I'll hang my hat on that.

18z euro is a bit further south with the ull and flow is a bit flatter on the EC....only thru 90 hours and probably wouldn't be enough to make a huge different but the bleeding temporarily stopped this run.

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27 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Tonight's EURO run must stop the bleeding and improve our snow chances for this weekend. The slp on the GFS this afternoon was pretty jumpy like it was unsure of what it was spitting out. I'll hang my hat on that.

dude we started off bleeding like we just came back from a 14th century war.....

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Btw wrt the mjo...I don’t think it’s going to save us but I also don’t think it’s going to kill us in Feb. After a brief nudge into 6 (and even that signal is conflicted if you look at the actual convection, it likely goes null. Other factors are likely to drive the bus in Feb imo. Doesn’t mean they will be any better but I suppose they can’t be any worse so there’s that. 

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The eps weeklies eject the vortex out of AK into central N America.  Also weakens the NAM back closer to a workable look. Sets up a gradient pattern but with us on the right side for early to mid February. Best look is probably this week 

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If that’s right that would imply we’re in line for waves and on the right side of the boundary. 

I know it’s worthless but I suppose it’s slightly better it looks good simply because when it’s an epic disaster that’s when it’s always right. 

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Btw wrt the mjo...I don’t think it’s going to save us but I also don’t think it’s going to kill us in Feb. After a brief nudge into 6 (and even that signal is conflicted if you look at the actual convection, it likely goes null. Other factors are likely to drive the bus in Feb imo. Doesn’t mean they will be any better but I suppose they can’t be any worse so there’s that. 

Yeah, I think this is the correct thinking. Latest roundy maps has the current wave croaking in 7/8. Then they start keying on a kelvin wave in p5. With lots of substance in p6, looks like it will head back towards cod then eventually a wave forms in p1/2. 
7386D83E-9D9D-4D07-86B9-EB7CB934A43E.thumb.png.831ef6cfb587700c9352b01eb29b1084.png

As for the weeklies, we need to get that look inside day 7 for me to believe it. If the AAM relaxes then perhaps  typical February nino takes over. 

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38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The eps weeklies eject the vortex out of AK into central N America.  Also weakens the NAM back closer to a workable look. Sets up a gradient pattern but with us on the right side for early to mid February. Best look is probably this week 

Basing this off the progression of the weeklies,  but mostly the behavior of the pv so far this season going back to November, maybe we get a significant inland and coastal plain snow event between the 14th and the 20th of Feb. , total speculation, but interesting things, although brief in nature have occurred bear the 20 th of the month. We simply have been unlucky and this time period may hold the best potential of the winter. 

 

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Just now, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, nj2va said:
500H is north through 84 on the 00z GFS.  Would like to see that trending south vs the other way.

There is barely a storm but yea we cant ever get a good trend

This is another swing and a miss storm. Even moving away quickly from a high elevation event and morphing into a fropa. Welcome back winter 2018-19.

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