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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Amped said:

It's where 95% of the board lives.

Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own.

Oh I don’t disagree that it’s out there. But it’s not on an island either. But still, you have to realize the we all look at weather in our own backyard.

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Just now, Amped said:

It's where 95% of the board lives.

Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own.

Whatever model gives us the least snow is ussually right. The euro was the first to degrade the look for yesterday and all other models followed then. Im sure the euro will trend to the gfs this time lol

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I just check the eps control... it actually has the storm. Comes right out of the SW and bumps against confluence/sprawling hp to the north. EPS is onto something me thinks. Hopefully in 5 days it becomes real. 
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Dude that's 12 days out lol...eps screwed up the pattern 5 days out...hard to trust with storm 12 days out. Right now the euo gives me 6 next Sunday. That's what I'm tracking....till 00z
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1 minute ago, Ji said:

Dude that's 12 days out lol...eps screwed up the pattern 5 days out...hard to trust with storm 12 days out. Right now the euo gives me 6 next Sunday. That's what I'm tracking....till 00z

It's the first time I've seen some sort of agreement for a specific window in a looooong time. EPS can be pretty good at picking miller A's at long range. We all know d10+ is unstable AF. We'll see how it evolves over the next 5 days. Miller As can be long tracked. We just don't get them often enough to remember anything about them. Not saying I believe a damn thing but what else are we going to do? Track a storm with roasting 850 temps and stale rotten air that wasn't even cold to begin with?

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's the first time I've seen some sort of agreement for a specific window in a looooong time. EPS can be pretty good at picking miller A's at long range. We all know d10+ is unstable AF. We'll see how it evolves over the next 5 days. Miller As can be long tracked. We just don't get them often enough to remember anything about them. Not saying I believe a damn thing but what else are we going to do? Track a storm with roasting 850 temps and stale rotten air that wasn't even cold to begin with?

Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey, for me, I'll take it whichever day we get it...as long as we get that every 3-4 year footer, lol But if it were to happen on the weekend thing through some wonky storm creating it's own cold air? Now THAT would be even more epic, lol

While epic looks have degraded, we still are in peak climo and we can do it in less than stellar looks.
Something to think about as we wait for the next unicorn to chase. 

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Guidance/ens members with near perfect track all have one thing in common....lack of cold air source. Everything is bottled in Canada. We dont do well holding out hope for storms to "manufacture their own cold air pool". 

But the look above that I liked showed 500 LP close enough to raise eyebrow. Yes we don’t typically, but if we were going to make some cold...climo says nows the time. That’s my point. Stack that 500 low and it will make its own cold. 

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53 minutes ago, frostbite_falls said:

So Ji is being optimistic and Bob Chill is being pessimistic (sorry Bob, I get it) and no one notes it?  

I'm not a pessimist about next weekend... just a realist. Lol

12z eps actually made me a little optimistic. Getting a Miller A or clean coastal would fix a lot of things around here. Very early stages of discussing it and obviously the odds are against us but coastals like this can get picked up at long leads much better than anything northern stream driven. By Wed we'll know if it's legit or a phantom. 

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