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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Hi res Euro is a Winchester beatdown:

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

 

Winchester is the winter king of VA.  It’s the city all other cities wish to be.  But can’t. You live a charmed life my friend. Only people in Lucketts can battle you for supremacy 

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22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I have a couple of questions: Now, Ji mentioned the Jan 2011 storm...now I remember that one went from rain to snow. Now why is it that rain-to-snow scenarios don't happen as often around here as the opposite? And also...was 2011 a case of a storm making it's own cold air?

Usually, a rain to snow scenario involves a changing of direction in the winds, and when the winds shift to the NW, that will bring in the cold air but it also brings in dry air and shuts off the precip. A lot of our snow-to-rain scenarios involve an established cold air mass where the storm track doesn't necessarily matter, because the initial cold air is enough to overcome the initial push of warmer air. Eventually, the warm air wins out. This past weekend was like a very poor man's example of that, but had a bigger batch of precip and heavier precip been aimed in our direction, we could have done pretty well with that. Same thing can also happen with coastal systems if they are too close. We can begin as snow and then switch to sleet and even rain as the winds become too easterly/southeasterly.

IIRC, 2011 was a strong upper level low that did create its own cold air. Once we got on the back side of it, we switched over to heavy snow. I love that storm. Just wish it had lasted longer. It really crushed some areas northeast of us. Talk about a heavy thump though, especially of very heavy, wet snow.

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12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Disagree....I bet the Euro jumps ship tonight. It's around that range now. And the fact there was zero support on the EPS is a no brainer where this is heading.

Hard to disagree with you. There was a couple members that looked similar to the OP but not many. There was support for snow further west  and north through western PA and western MD. 

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24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Wouldn’t it be crazy if everyone checks out and we sneak one in?  

If that were to happen, I'd be kinda proud to say that I stayed checked in! :D (and mainly it's because of history, really...I mean sure, we could get our 3-4 year footer in sometime next month...but having it happen this way would be sweet, lol Does the trend continue?...)

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I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 

H3wuX5Y.png

 

This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 

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I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 
H3wuX5Y.png&key=5f09511b16659c474e957656e0e44867a6c75f7d480c5c2473b97b36afb5cec8
 
This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 
We dont need cold air....we had a foot of snow in 1988 or 89 with no cold air...temp never fell below 36 I think
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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This isn’t one of those times when a model is completely on its own. The CMC, the JMA, the ICON all have somewhat of a similar evolution.

If any model gives us 2 feet of snow it's going to be the NAM because it's the dumbest model.. Euro isn't even a good setup for anyone  east of 81.

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2 minutes ago, Amped said:

If any model gives us 2 feet of snow it's going to be the NAM because it's the dumbest model.. Euro isn't even a good setup for anyone  east of 81.

Possibly all true. But you don’t think I’m really studying the weather East of I81 do you? LOL.

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

We dont need cold air....we had a foot of snow in 1988 or 89 with no cold air...temp never fell below 36 I think emoji23.png

I just check the eps control... it actually has the storm. Comes right out of the SW and bumps against confluence/sprawling hp to the north. EPS is onto something me thinks. Hopefully in 5 days it becomes real. 

gQOTvLg.png

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 

H3wuX5Y.png

 

This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 

Bob is there a table like that for Winchester or maybe Hagerstown? Any location out this way?

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Possibly all true. But you don’t think I’m really studying the weather East of I81 do you? LOL.

It's where 95% of the board lives.

Also the euro is further south with the ULL than other models and the EPS. So it is a little on it's own.

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I did see something encouraging on the EPS. Some sort of system ejects out of the SW with a decent track. It's a long ways out and could be a blip but this is the most active cluster d10+ I've seen in a week. Seeing the agreement on timing is a step above a random shotgun blast with nothing specific. EPS is seeing a discrete event from the distance. 

H3wuX5Y.png

 

This weekend is very low probability. Practically zero imho. Loop the 850 temp panels on the gfs and euro and be honest with yourself... there is no cold air all the way to the Canadian border out in front and the air behind the system is above normal. Is this really a snow setup? 

Yeah I agree that right now it’s just a couple models runs and likely a couple more model runs from something way different (and likely worse). Thing that raises my eyebrow is that we have a few big gums showing g something close to workable for us. Enough antecedent cold and maybe we sneak some mangled mess in. 

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