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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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It happens sometimes but we can never escape the reality that 80-90% of our winter precip is rain on average going back 100s of years. The odds of a good trend are 10% and a bad trend is 90%. There's a very clear statistical reason that the vast majority of our events trend the wrong way
I remember a few storms that were modeled rain that snowed but extremely rare. Pd2 and late feb 2015( the west track storm) come to mind. Jan 2011 trafficgeddon too
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Just now, Ji said:
30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
It happens sometimes but we can never escape the reality that 80-90% of our winter precip is rain on average going back 100s of years. The odds of a good trend are 10% and a bad trend is 90%. There's a very clear statistical reason that the vast majority of our events trend the wrong way

I remember a few storms that were modeled rain that snowed but extremely rare. Pd2 and late feb 2015( the west track storm) come to mind. Jan 2011 trafficgeddon too

The real flaw this winter is a total lack of deep cold airmasses. We've had zero since mid Dec. A week ago ens really teased us with deep cold. It's just not happening for any reason so far. For the next 3 weeks we really only need "normal cold" and even that is challenging it seems. 

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6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

All caveats aside...it’s a pasting out west.

D6982D18-2A17-4640-A15A-18B4099AB709.png

haha...I live east of 95. I know my climo and I've made peace with it. I genuinely would love if areas north and west got crushed with this thing. At the very least, looks like we may have something to track this week. Which is enjoyable. 

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

I'm so confused. The EURO just spit out probably it's most exciting run all year...and silence from Chill, Psu and Ji....

I think Chill kinda temporarily checked out (and he said he's been busy) and psu is just taking a break from the boards in general for a couple days. I'm sure Ji's around...lol

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1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

I'm so confused. The EURO just spit out probably it's most exciting run all year...and silence from Chill, Psu and Ji....

Don’t think anyone will jump on this grenade just yet.  Long time to go but makes a tasty snack for weenie hunger

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