Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still lots to be resolved next weekend and many have canceled it already lol but love seeing coastals in the mix . Interesting tracking ahead and far from boring imo.

 

f180.gif

Where’s the cold air when we need it. Just hope for a colder look going forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Still lots to be resolved next weekend and many have canceled it already lol but love seeing coastals in the mix . Interesting tracking ahead and far from boring imo.

 

f180.gif

6z gfs pops the low right over CHO and then ne from there to a position south of long island. Need the whole flow to pop south some to try and draw in whatever cold air may be available.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am actually liking the chances for next weekend. The gfs has started to move toward a workable solution. on a side note I broke my left arm yesterday so excuse the crappy typing over the next few weeks. I bet my typing will still be better than DT's :)

Oof!! How'd ya do that? 

Glad I'm not alone in feeling a bit better about next weekend! Pieces seem to be moving around...maybe some baby steps towards something better the next few days? (6z GFS crushed NE, lol Since that wasn't there yesterday...and the EURO also tipping ever so slightly to a different solution...I'm still gonna keep watching! Still a ways to go, though)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am actually liking the chances for next weekend.

Maybe we should just... take a step back... not say anything until the night before... How many times has this happened already? I think more than 1, but I don’t care to remember. (This isn’t supposed to sound agressive)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe we should just... take a step back... not say anything until the night before... How many times has this happened already? I think more than 1, but I don’t care to remember. (This isn’t supposed to sound agressive)

I get ya...but of course you know we won't be able to help ourselves, lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z gfs really isn't too far off from something next week. Wouldn't take much for a rain to snow type coastal storm situation. The block to the north has the potential to slow down whatever forms off the coast. There's a lot of cold to our north. If this could form a little sooner/slightly further east we'd be in business. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Maybe we should just... take a step back... not say anything until the night before... How many times has this happened already? I think more than 1, but I don’t care to remember. (This isn’t supposed to sound agressive)

It is interesting to discuss the long range,  but you should realize that modeling,  in general,  at long leads is perilous.  The base state is a warm one so far this winter. 

Cold air masses are at best feeble.   If it were not for our hobby's purpose and never ending quest for  guidance and quest to discover the forecast beyond day 5 we would eliminate the never ending model chaos.

I think I read recently the increase in social media  sharing of models at exceptional long leads only causes further mind bending beliefs that we really know what may transpire. I tend to agree with that general idea. 

But, if you use the data wisely you can learn and move the science  forward.  Certainly modeling has improved the last few decades. On a more relevant long range note,  a quick carry over post from snowy over at 33.  

Still some hope for later in Feb though ........

 

 <<

There's been so so so many posts arguing about the MJO, but at the end of the day, if it doesn't get to the extratropics and the poles, it's impact is rather limited.

 

Again it's going to be gradual. But a positive AAM is a positive sign. Nothing definitive and no sudden equations or conclusions to be made there, but is a hopeful sign. Cautiously optimistic is the best place to be IMO.

 

>> 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro if anything is interesting

Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern
Lol what do you see in February?
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro if anything is interesting

Yeah, in my mind this is worth tracking. Wouldn't take much imo to put areas north and west in the game for something. Still a week to go. Plenty of time for just about anything to happen. With all respect to Chill, he was telling us all last week to get some good sleep because by now we'd be up all night waiting for the 0z euro runs with much anticipation. Take it five days at a time in this hobby. I won't start to get depressed until we get to mid-feb without anything. 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...