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January 18-19 SWFE


HoarfrostHubb
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7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Makes sense.... there is very little confidence anyone will see warning amounts... let alone a large enough majority to justify a warning.

I promise you though... a few people will get 6 or 7” and you’ll here “blehhhhhhhhh, should have been a warning, we got 7 inches!!”

Is that "blehhhhh" a Felger reference? :lol:

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People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc.

Pfft.  It means EVERYTHING.

 

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Yup... lol. All I can hear in my head too is him saying it. 
 

Hopefully this trends a little juicier and there is a lot of blehhhhing going on Sunday 

:lol: I love that DB.

Still like 4-7" for 495 zone...shouldn't much change at all from first call. Will post Final Call tonight.

7" will be pretty isolated imo.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Those maps look pretty good to me. Might be a little juicy off to the northwest...though the orographic spots will get additional snows on Sunday.

I agree.

I personally don't care, it doesn't affect the outcome and certainly doesn't affect my FX. I just find it funny when watches go up, nothing supports it, they themselves have 0% >6" in those areas and you KNOW they are just going to be converted to an advisory anyways.

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I revise my call to 3-6’’....don’t love the warnings. It’s going to have to go gangbusters to verify widespread 6’’ amounts. I can see it coming down good at like 8-9 o’clock and then it shuts off by 2 am. Going to need to do a lot of work in that timeframe for warning amounts. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You never adjust. Sometimes it’s ok to take amounts up especially as things have ramped up today 

Thats not true at all. I put out a first call map yesterday and I'm working on a new one as we speak for a final call, that will be adjusted.

I haven't needed to for the past few storms and have an excellent track record so far this season. 

I can show you many storms that ive bumped up or down in past seasons.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc.

The difference between 5.5”-6.5”   Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling.

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The difference between 5.5”-6.5”   Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling.

But weenies love warnings, myself included. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m still having trouble seeing more than 6 inches and a larger area.

That's what she said.

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The difference between 5.5”-6.5”   Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling.

That's not what she said.

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