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January 18-19 SWFE


HoarfrostHubb
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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like the NWS offices have gone a bit wild on this one....but maybe it works out. Ratios could make it possible...if we're like closer to 15 to 1, but I am always hesitant to count on that. Def some guidance showing the crosshair sig.

 

We could also still subtly trend that shortwave sharper instead of getting ground up...that would juice it up a little more too.

I agree...they are a little overzealous.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

4 is totally reasonable...8 is gonna require some ratios or a juicier trend...which could happen BTW. I'm probably nitpicking anyway. For all we know, this will ramp up the next two cycles and then this will all be moot.

But the fast moving nature of this and lack of good strong DPVA is still bothering me a little for widespread warning criteria....though the latter has subtly trended better today.

Yeah--it's way too progressive to do any more damage than that.

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I wonder if the higher end of the range is moreso to cover for the potential that some localized (though maybe slightly more than just localized) areas see totals towards that end. There are going to be some embedded pockets of some pretty intense lift so there will be places that pull of 7'' to 8'' and that might be a bit more than just isolated...at least enough so to warrant incorporating a range to include those totals. 

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33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My experience with GYX is they tend to be really conservative on amounts--at least they used to be.  They've been saying 4-8" for me since last night.

That’s not my perception ...especially when the ceiling is there for over a foot, seems they oft chuck em close to max amounts on large events (the last 2-3 years) but this regarding their snow maps, point and click maybe more conservative 

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