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January 18-19 SWFE


HoarfrostHubb
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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

BTV mentions it in their discussion  


Unfortunately, the magnitude and direction of this jet will
likely allow for downsloping along the northern slopes of the
Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, with locally lower snowfall
totals in these areas.

Should upslope for the southern and central Dacks

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
335 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-171700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0001.200118T2000Z-200119T1200Z/
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA-
Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-
Eastern Hampden MA-
Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon,
Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst,
Northampton, and Springfield
335 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible.

* WHERE...The Connecticut River Valley in Massachusetts and
  Connecticut, the east slopes of the Berkshires and Tolland
  County in Connecticut.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Saturday
  evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at rates of an inch per hour
  at times Saturday evening. The bulk of the accumulating snow is
  Saturday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Somebody went into a lot of detail to come up with this.

image.thumb.png.b346810f7b33a4938cf41966b8366f4b.png

 

Love the look of that.  Perhaps I can both get and eek out a warning verification (is that 7 or 8 for GYX??)..  

BOX has a watch for here which I doubt will verify.  GYX has no watch as of now yet may verify.  The advisory/warning drumbeat  of '19-20 continues.  :)

 

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BOX's most-likely and 90% maps are essentially identical......that doesn't seem to make sense.

EDIT:  Perhaps they expect the same qpf and the only determining factor is  whether they taint.  Since they don't expect that, you get the 50% and 90% being the same.   That said, I'm still not sure where they're getting the qpf to warrant watches.

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58 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

read the AFD

Yeah, I think their reasoning in the discussion makes sense.  The BOX forecast for me in northern Tolland County is 1-3" tomorrow afternoon and 3-5" tomorrow evening.  That's 4-8".  There's just as likely a chance for 4" as 8" and I think that's a reasonable call at this time considering there may be places over 6".

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

06z Euro pretty typical for a SWFE with totals remaining uniform, SLP looks to get going along the Maine coast the last couple runs so some enhancement there.

image.thumb.png.80949febb589346dc38f6e3b0b8075b8.png

Subtle signs this is beefing up slightly?  Sounds like you get the good ratios the whole storm so you’d be 6-10 while I get good ratios for a bit and end up 4-7

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Subtle signs this is beefing up slightly?  Sounds like you get the good ratios the whole storm so you’d be 6-10 while I get good ratios for a bit and end up 4-7

Yeah, Been a slight uptick in the modeled QPF, We won't have to worry about any taint.

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9 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Yeah, I think their reasoning in the discussion makes sense.  The BOX forecast for me in northern Tolland County is 1-3" tomorrow afternoon and 3-5" tomorrow evening.  That's 4-8".  There's just as likely a chance for 4" as 8" and I think that's a reasonable call at this time considering there may be places over 6".

I'll sell above 6". Maybe a narrow area if there is enhancement with the front, but I don't see their reasoning. Unless they think we are getting 15-20:1 ratios.

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37 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I used to use this site for checking F-Gen at certain levels but it seems it last ran on Dec 10th 2019.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

Does anyone have anything similar to this? I would love to see some of these graphics for this storm.

Hit the Archive button for individual.  You will want to look for ne on the description . Thump getting more pronounced in CT . RGEM now showing 6 to 8 in NE CT Tolland Union area. We slope

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