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January 18-19 SWFE


HoarfrostHubb
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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Getting to double digits with both storms? I think that was a given here anyways right now.

Yeah, you look golden for 10-12, maybe 14-15 if it really goes well.  I think over here it looks like 6-10, and 10 would be if things go really well.  Trends seem to indicate an overperformer for tomorrow, but we'll see.  Also I still have hope for something bigger this weekend...we'll have to see how it looks once tomorrow's storm gets past us.

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1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

12Z EPS. 24hr snow totals. Right now based on everything i think a widespread 2-4 looks likely away from the immediate coast for most of SNE. This lines up pretty well with what i would go with atm. Probably go 4-6 N & W of I90. 2-4 everywhere else S.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_24hr-9435200.thumb.png.b3c2ce12349797df4a9fb6f0d7968c7b.png

What's west of I-90?  The Pacific?  

Nice look for all, though glad I'll be at Pit2.

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GFS has a complete cutter going way further to the north and is no longer a by of Fundy Track but a central New Brunswick one with a longer duration of rain though not looking very intense as the precipitation looks along the lines of late December 2018 and early January 2019 type of weak system.  That thump is looking less likely and is more of a straight out mild air event.  I am still surprised that the highs are still only 37 degrees but I am expecting 40's as a probability and general snow lovers defeat as models continue to trend warmer, which leads me to think this storm is looking like more snow for Quebec, Northern New Brunswick, and Northern interior New England. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

The most important thing to take from the 18z NAM/GFS is that they continue with the theme of dynamic cooling. The biggest key is if we can maximize ratios...if we do I think wi widespread swath of 4-7” is very likely away from the immediate coast. 

The triple pointing weenie is starting to show up, Will ftw. I have it at 2-4” with a bump up to 4-6” if we get more nam-ish like solutions. 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

The most important thing to take from the 18z NAM/GFS is that they continue with the theme of dynamic cooling. The biggest key is if we can maximize ratios...if we do I think wi widespread swath of 4-7” is very likely away from the immediate coast. 

I'd sell good ratios on any WAA SWFE style system... 7-9:1 seems to be the climo favored results from these type of events.

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