Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

WINTER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND EVENT JAN 18-19, 2020


Albedoman
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

3k NAM is basically a non event for 95 with only a tenth of precip falling(mostly frozen though :axe: ) . Even up in the LV, totals would be lucky to eclipse 2 inches. Basically a minor nuisance. This storm really is a microcosm of this winter...

 

qpf_024h.us_ne.png

Keep in mind NAM at this range not real useful with qpf....it will NAM someone by Saturday 0z run

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Seems reasonable. As for the follow up system(s) the favorable looks are headed the wrong way again and getting delayed or the longwaves are just not lining up to produce anything meaningful. I'm afraid the GL cutters and systems just off the coast during cold air retreat are going to continue. It is probably going to take a fluke late in the season to give us something meaningful. Still think we have one large system before its all over. Whether big enough to get us to avg per my outlook tbd. I will be the first to claim I failed at season end....nothing to hide or be ashamed of. Just not looking great right now.

One thing we’ll have is the cold being entrenched for a few days. GFS sometimes looks good - I know the GFS loves long range snows - but some recent runs have even had a Miller B working out. Guess cautiously optimistic is the way to go? 
 

Glad you agree we can at least get 1-3” out of this next storm.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WXSIM with 12z NAM/GFS data trended a bit snowier but still mainly sleet with temps never rising above freezing in NW Chester County PA during the storm. Timing - Snow arrives by 1230pm briefly heavy before changing to IP by 2pm then IP heavy at times before mixing back with snow by 6pm and ending by 730pm - total snow/sleet accumulation 3" to 4"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WXSIM with 0z NAM and 18z GFS for NW Chesco - 3" to 5" of snow/sleet

Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A
 slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and sleet likely in the
 afternoon. High 29. Wind south around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 8 mph in
 the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation
 around 2 inches.

 
 Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after
 midnight, with scattered light frost possible. Snow likely in the evening, then
 a slight chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain after midnight.
 Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to
 20. Wind south-southwest around 10 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Little
 if any freezing rain accumulation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cecily Tynan going with a change to rain all the way into the LV, no sleet just solid r/s line. "Very mild air will work it's way in Saturday afternoon". 

 

I told my wife to never look at TV weather...we can see the models just as well....funny thing is that forecast she shows tonight will be the same one they go with all morning tomorrow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, The Iceman said:

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

Mt Holly's early call. Pretty much agree with it except I'd bring the 1 inch line into 95. But with the way things have been trending, their map is probably the right call.

Expected snowfall less than < 1”. Story of our lives for the last tao Years lol. So pathetic. Haven’t even hit an inch yet this year 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS data has trended colder for NW Chester County I'm a bit surprised my zone forecast does not include a WWA. It could be the NWS cannot split the zone north vs. south. My point and click has a high of 37 for me tomorrow in East Nantmeal... I will take the way under - I will be surprised if we get near or above freezing. Total snow and sleet accumulation around 2" to 3".

Here is the rundown of precipitation types temperatures and timing

  • 12 noon Light snow (temp) (25.3)
  • 1pm Moderate sleet (24.7)
  • 4pm Heavy sleet (23.6)
  • 7pm Heavy snow (23.6)
  • 8pm snow ending (23.9)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS data has trended colder for NW Chester County I'm a bit surprised my zone forecast does not include a WWA. It could be the NWS cannot split the zone north vs. south. My point and click has a high of 37 for me tomorrow in East Nantmeal... I will take the way under - I will be surprised if we get near or above freezing. Total snow and sleet accumulation around 2" to 3".

Here is the rundown of precipitation types temperatures and timing

  • 12 noon Light snow (temp) (25.3)
  • 1pm Moderate sleet (24.7)
  • 4pm Heavy sleet (23.6)
  • 7pm Heavy snow (23.6)
  • 8pm snow ending (23.9)

It is interesting to see some of the hires stuff flip dome areas back to snow as the flows backs and winds veer NE later in the day. RGEM has a nice burst of heavy snow in the back end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'd be happy with 2"-3". 12z NAM continues to look sleety here after an initial burst of snow.

Actually, I'm one of those weirdos that likes a good sleet storm -- put down a layer of ice, top it off with drizzle, then freeze it solid!

I'm with you. If we arent going to have a clean snow then pile that sleet up! The Valentines sleetfest ('07?) was epic. Had like 3" of sleet where I resided at that time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm with you. If we arent going to have a clean snow then pile that sleet up! The Valentines sleetfest ('07?) was epic. Had like 3" of sleet where I resided at that time. 

I remember that and I think it was '07. I was driving to Limerick on Rt 422 early in the morning and it wasn't plowed. Driving on 3-4" of sleet is way different than same amount of snow. I'll probably never experience that again in my life. Anyhow, let's grab a couple inches of whatever tomorrow and make it last for several days.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'd be happy with 2"-3". 12z NAM continues to look sleety here after an initial burst of snow.

Actually, I'm one of those weirdos that likes a good sleet storm -- put down a layer of ice, top it off with drizzle, then freeze it solid!

Keep in mind sleet counts as snow - it just accumulates relatively slow with a rule of thumb rate of w.e. to sleet of only 5:1 vs snow which is 10:1

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I remember that and I think it was '07. I was driving to Limerick on Rt 422 early in the morning and it wasn't plowed. Driving on 3-4" of sleet is way different than same amount of snow. I'll probably never experience that again in my life. Anyhow, let's grab a couple inches of whatever tomorrow and make it last for several days.

 

12z suite is coming in colder 850s and keeping them colder longer. Also seeing colder 2m temps. This is on the RGEM ICON, and GFS. NAM is warmer fwiw. Awaiting the WRFs mesos.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRDPS is much colder and almost entirely frozen thru entire event save for the extreme SE counties (Delco, Philly, S chesco, extreme lower Bucks). Good trends so far 12z if you like frozen. NAM thus far is by itself. Not saying it is wrong as these events usually warm faster than modeled but will be interesting to see which guidance has the better idea.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z suite is coming in colder 850s and keeping them colder longer. Also seeing colder 2m temps. This is on the RGEM ICON, and GFS. NAM is warmer fwiw. Awaiting the WRFs mesos.

Meso's are all over the place with QPF and precip type. Theme of colder for longer though is there. All of them are pretty unanimous that 95 stays below freezing until the last hour of precip. The NSSL is the best for everyone with mostly snow and only really changes to sleet for a brief period in the southern/95 areas before a change to light rain at the very end. The WRF -NMMB is a sleet bomb even for those up in the lehigh valley. It's the coldest of all the meso's though, 95 doesn't get above freezing until precip is gone, but it also has only half of the QPF of the NSSL. The WRF ARW is closer to the NSSL but has more sleet and a little bit less QPF. Overall though, pretty positive runs. Trending towards a WWA possibly for 95. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, The Iceman said:

Meso's are all over the place with QPF and precip type. Theme of colder for longer though is there. All of them are pretty unanimous that 95 stays below freezing until the last hour of precip. The NSSL is the best for everyone with mostly snow and only really changes to sleet for a brief period in the southern/95 areas before a change to light rain at the very end. The WRF -NMMB is a sleet bomb even for those up in the lehigh valley. It's the coldest of all the meso's though, 95 doesn't get above freezing until precip is gone, but it also has only half of the QPF of the NSSL. The WRF ARW is closer to the NSSL but has more sleet and a little bit less QPF. Overall though, pretty positive runs. Trending towards a WWA possibly for 95. 

WRFs are all coming in colder at the surface and longer 850s sub 32f fwiw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...