Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January 18th Event


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

For you out there, sure.  But again, people closer to I-95 are allowed to fret all they want.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think it will be a problem there, DC north. Gonna be evaporational cooling to go along with a stout cad setup. I could be wrong, but think precip is the real worry.

Now if it’s afternoon before any meaningful precip makes it, that’s another story.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I could be wrong, but I don’t think it will be a problem there, DC north. Gonna be evaporational cooling to go along with a stout cad setup. I could be wrong, but think precip is the real worry.

Now if it’s afternoon before any meaningful precip makes it, that’s another story.

Nope.  Its two-fold.  We need temps to be as low as can be because we will warm nose sooner.  Precip has to come in as early as possible before we flood with torching air.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Why do so many areas have a winter weather advisory for an inch of slush when there's no rush hour?

So just because there is no rush hour, the people that still have to work and be out tomorrow morning shouldn't be advised that travel will certainly become treacherous? When it snows tomorrow morning it will not be slush - it will stick and freeze to the roads

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

So just because there is no rush hour, the people that still have to work and be out tomorrow morning shouldn't be advised that travel will certainly become treacherous? When it snows tomorrow morning it will not be slush - it will stick and freeze to the roads

I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met.

eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory "

Winter Weather Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning.

If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches).

"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met.

eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory "

Winter Weather Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning.

If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches).

"

Thanks and have a good day :) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mappy said:

never thought i'd see the day where someone complains about an advisory being issued. usually its everyone whining about when they get issued and how the snow depends on it. 

this place. :axe:

Its the same person complaining about the advisory that posted the snow depth maps 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

NAM is going to make a couple more people happy.  At least they will see some snow.

That initial wave seems very fast. Maybe an hour of snow for most. 3K still looks like a virtual non-event for almost all but maybe the northern tier. Of course, any little bit of ice can cause major problems on the roads.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

NAM 3k soundings are much more interesting on the 18z run vs 12z. 700mb frontogen is better over MD and there is strong vertical motion in the dendrite growth zone near 500mb. Warm layer near 850 still near freezing though. Big rimed conglomerates?

Still wouldnt be surprised if folks are pinging soon after initial flakes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Eric Horst's map seems realistic for the area. An inch (maybe 2) along the MD line then pingers.

Cranky has 2-4" for the same areas. I think its possible to get up to 4" but it would be snow/sleet combined. Unless the NAM is right, then we are lucky to see an inch or so. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met.

eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory "

Winter Weather Advisory

A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning.

If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches).

"

There is the potential for some ice accretion. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
133 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

MDZ503-504-VAZ028-030-031-052-053-501-502-505-506-WVZ052-053-
180245-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.200118T1200Z-200119T0000Z/
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley-Jefferson-
133 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow and
  sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of
  up to one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Maryland, northern and northwest
  Virginia and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. Precipitation will begin
  as snow before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain.
  Precipitation will change to rain late in the day.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

 

Hope that helps. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

It's not all snow in the A.M.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_18.png

 

          This is a good catch, but the idea of that initial band having some sleet in it is an outlier solution, and the associated forecast soundings have a warm layer that is just barely above freezing.    Something to watch for in the evening runs, though.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...