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January 18th Event


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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS brought higher precip close to pa border and overall is wetter to the north of us. Need another 75 miles. 
 

Trying to see positives

looking at pivotal weather for soundings, my area

12z 23 degrees, snow

18z 27 degrees, snow (warm nose is there but its realllllllly shallow)

00z 34 degrees once precip is out of area

i may never flip to rain 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep..I just looked as well since it was showing 4+ in Northern Harford and it's close but like u said its verbatim snow.  Nam at 18z is sleet but it looks very borderline.  Maybe we back into a mostly snow/with minimum sleet event  :weenie:

I got $20 that says u will never go above 32 btw

i'm hopeful we stay mostly snow, but you know how these setups go... always in real time. 

hahahahaha, we shall see! ;) 

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

looking at pivotal weather for soundings, my area

12z 23 degrees, snow

18z 27 degrees, snow (warm nose is there but its realllllllly shallow)

00z 34 degrees once precip is out of area

i may never flip to rain 

I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. 
 

good luck. 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. 
 

good luck. 

Can you work some magic and get some precip to show up. 
 

Right now for me the euro is the wettest model. That’s never a good thing because it’s usually dry, and usually right.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can you work some magic and get some precip to show up. 
 

Right now for me the euro is the wettest model. That’s never a good thing because it’s usually dry, and usually right.

Not sure I’m totally buying the banded structure of first overrunning precip. 
ti my eyes decent lift in the dead zone says it should squeeze something out 

image.thumb.png.903fcda0f8327fd13f8af31fafdee2e4.png

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13 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Point and click forecast for me is 2-4” of snow/sleet and 0.1” ice. I’m excited. Hopefully we get some decent upslope snow showers since I’ll flip to rain eventually for a bit late Saturday afternoon and evening before the hammer drops around midnight Saturday into Sunday. 

We need more of a thump to hit us while it's still frigid up top and at the surface so that we can get a few fresh inches for the slopes saturday morning before it flips. Hopefully by the time it flips it will be early afternoon and time to head inside for some relaxing and a few libations, and then we can head back out Sunday morning to a little more fresh powder!

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39 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

We need more of a thump to hit us while it's still frigid up top and at the surface so that we can get a few fresh inches for the slopes saturday morning before it flips. Hopefully by the time it flips it will be early afternoon and time to head inside for some relaxing and a few libations, and then we can head back out Sunday morning to a little more fresh powder!

Yup, at least it’s interesting winter weather! Will be on the slopes tonight, tomorrow morning, and Sunday. My guess is we are already sleeting by 7a tomorrow. Freezing rain late morning. And plain rain by 3pm. 
 

LWX just posted WWA for everyone west of 95. Pitt hasn’t posted for the mountains yet but should be as part of the afternoon package. 

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I think NWS had in their package late yesterday that low 40s was to be high for today and Saturday. If I’m wrong then apology 

at prime heating hour DC area averages 37 currently, dews  at 11, a skull crushing baro of 30.70 and brisk  northwest winds. That’s a lot of favorable conditions for an event 12 hours away. So whatever might switch that would have to be a strong surge of mild and strong  surges produce good results.

i still think we snow sleet and freezing rain and then taper to drizzle with no steady snow eroding rain 

 

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Fantastic agreement among the hi-res models for the initial band of snow at some point during the 7-10am or so time frame (earlier for those further west) followed by a break for a few hours before the main batch of precip arrives with snow changing to sleet to (maybe a period of freezing rain) to rain through the mid/late afternoon hours (with the temps taking extra time to crack the freezing mark north of I-70).

I still believe that the morning snow band is going to cause a lot of road problems with the temps in the 20s.

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