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January 18th Event


stormtracker
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53 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Now we just need to get the models to shift those 700 mb winds back toward us. I’m assuming a weaker less wound up low would do that. Regardless, perhaps the euro starts the trend back at least a little in our direction.

is it time to bring back the weenie of the year tournament lol

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@psuhoffman is the best poster...not in the Mid Atlantic Sub Forum but the entire Board. His combination of ridiculous meteorology knowledge and his ability to teach it where its understandable(hello isotherm/HM)  and then his sense of humor to boot. And i dont say this lightly because Bob Chill is easily in the top 5 on the board. We are pretty lucky to have what we have here....the philly board has Ralph Wiggum lol:) 

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25 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Going to be in Deep Creek this weekend. Are they still in the game on this one, or is it looking weak out there as well? What would need to change to give a mostly snow event? Been an awful year for the ski resorts.

We've got a house out there and will be there this weekend.  Agree that this season has been pretty terrible there...probably around 20-25" so far when they average north of 110" for the year.  

Way too much would need to change for this to be all snow.  A lot of variables at play for how much frozen precip we get there (WAA precip amounts, how long the low level cold sticks around) but it does seem likely we'll see a frozen event there.  Will guess we see a little snow then sleet/ice.  Probably some rain in the afternoon, depending on how long the cold hangs on.  Once the winds shift from the NW overnight into Sunday, we'll see upslope snow showers.  

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OK...this really is my last post...

So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic.  This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result.  That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM.  

16305266_NAMd.thumb.png.8d0dd6906afb4ff053521057988dfdd0.png

Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation.  

 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

OK...this really is my last post...

So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic.  This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result.  That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM.  

16305266_NAMd.thumb.png.8d0dd6906afb4ff053521057988dfdd0.png

Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation.  

 

This is why the globals should be looked at it with a grain of salt in the medium range with CAD situations. I like to use the medium range globals to give a general pattern depiction then go on what we know to happen in these situations. Even the mesoscale models struggle. 

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