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January 18th Event


stormtracker
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22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Im curious to see the meso models  when they come into range by Thursday.  If they start showing a bit better initial waa thump then that might be all most need to hold onto the column long enough for a 2-4" before sleet / ice. We need like .3 to .5" in 6hrs I'd think to help hold the column longer. Still a wayys to go with this

WAA thump will be hard.  The column will be so very, very dry with that 1046 HP strength and placement.  GFS at 1am Saturday.  The bottom 1/3rd of the snow growth zone is super dry and the balance of the descent for the snowflakes is an absolute desert with dews at the surface around 0F.

gfs_2020011418_084_39_25--77_25.thumb.png.9b6b743ace7a6d0588493d541a09998c.png

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Thanks for posting btw

Where is that local?

I plugged in Gfs at 12z Saturday right as precip enters ( Winchester,Va) and it looks better but still a little dry .

PhotoPictureResizer_200114_191750796_crop_1422x1179.jpg

It's point and click on northern MoCo (Clarksburg-ish).  6 hours later and 50 miles WSW to Winchester, I am not surprised to see saturation.  But, by then, we're losing the 850's...

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z euro is souther/colder. Small change but every inch makes a diference in these parts. Run ends at hr90 so don't know if it made any difference. 

The primary is south but that hadn’t mattered at all on past runs. It has no WAA surge to the east. Precip is nowhere near us at 12z. That run won’t end well imo. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Eps has a bit less ridging ahead of our system.  Also a tick wetter . Babbby steps

Also LP is about 3mb weaker on Saturday at 12z .

Following the op but it was an incremental run over run improvement. 18z was friendly. No big shifts or anything but the bleeding stopped... for now

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25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Eps has a bit less ridging ahead of our system.  Also a tick wetter . 850s hang on longer as well .Babbby steps

Also LP is about 3mb weaker on Saturday at 12z .

18z NAM showed a bit less ridging which is what PSU was Sharing this AM wrt GFS and Euro. I’m rooting that scenario on and will deal with whatever comes as it will lessen warm nose intrusion to mids. 

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Just now, anotherman said:


It was during the 2009-10 winter. They just happened to be right more often than not because that winter was just that good. Sort of like JB.

True lol. I think I started my weather page the winter before that one. It certainly helped to get followers. I’m no where near them but 7500 strong now:lol:

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7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

0z Icon won’t make any friends that’s for sure 

There is no miracle play that I can see with this one.  It’s a Midwest storm that may throw some flakes our way.  It would take a major change to change our fate.  

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4 hours ago, jaydreb said:

0z GFS largely unchanged.  Maybe slightly worse/warmer but just noise.  

I dont think it is noise. A couple of runs ago the GFS went from 8 inches to 2 inches for me... and it hasnt really recovered at all.  

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

starting storm threads on monday for a saturday storm. Good job

That is surely the reason why this now looks bleak. That, and that alone caused this storm to trend from an intrinsically bad set up where the models at range had everything going right,  to what is now the most likely outcome with a surface low tracking to Toronto.

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People need to keep in mind that we don’t need some type of Hail Mary with this. The shift we need isn’t huge. At 72+ hours getting a shift of 100 miles isn’t out of the realm. I still maintain it’s the position of the low. We just need it to trend south a few runs. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

People need to keep in mind that we don’t need some type of Hail Mary with this. The shift we need isn’t huge. At 72+ hours getting a shift of 100 miles isn’t out of the realm. I still maintain it’s the position of the low. We just need it to trend south a few runs. 

Not gonna happen. SE ridge pumping up out in front of the primary tracking north of us. 

6z gfs says it’s all but over. Think this one is toast

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

People need to keep in mind that we don’t need some type of Hail Mary with this. The shift we need isn’t huge. At 72+ hours getting a shift of 100 miles isn’t out of the realm. I still maintain it’s the position of the low. We just need it to trend south a few runs. 

Go back on TT and cycle through the gfs and euro runs the last 72 hours and compare the “snowy vs not” runs. The strength and track of the primary have no correlation to our snow with this setup. The runs that had less ridging and this a more elongated trough to the east of the low to direct the winds ahead of the system more east into the mid Atlantic (hence WAA) were good. Regardless of the primary low location. The runs with more ridge and sharper trough were bad, regardless of the low. 

Now if you adjusted the low far enough south it would matter. But that would have to be a huge adjustment. Moving it 50 or 100 miles won’t matter when it’s cutting through Wisconsin.  An adjustment from Green Bay to Milwaukee won’t help. 

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23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Go back on TT and cycle through the gfs and euro runs the last 72 hours and compare the “snowy vs not” runs. The strength and track of the primary have no correlation to our snow with this setup. The runs that had less ridging and this a more elongated trough to the east of the low to direct the winds ahead of the system more east into the mid Atlantic (hence WAA) were good. Regardless of the primary low location. The runs with more ridge and sharper trough were bad, regardless of the low. 

Now if you adjusted the low far enough south it would matter. But that would have to be a huge adjustment. Moving it 50 or 100 miles won’t matter when it’s cutting through Wisconsin.  An adjustment from Green Bay to Milwaukee won’t help. 

Look at the modeled radar on the last GFS run at 18z Sat. Look at the precip shield at about 41 lat. Move that low to South Bend and you’re gonna move that precip shield. If we can get precip, I think we’ll stay cold enough for frozen if some sort.

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