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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dry air often funnels down the Hudson Valley, very common for echoes to dry up and then pulse back up again east of town

The CT Valley river dry nose is notorious for being an issue here in the metro and eastern NJ.  It’s not common to see it on these events though because the flow isn’t NE.  This is likely just weakening of the forcing.  The CT river dry nose is most notable early on in coastal storms or S-N moving systems which have a NE drainage flow ahead of them.  You’ll see places like ISP/MMU snowing like crazy while between it can take 2 hours or more to get solid snow growth and decent rates though the radar may look good.  12/19/09 saw this happen  

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Precipitation moved in about an hour sooner than most guidance which happens often in overrunning  situations. Considering we have about seven hours of precipitation left I feel it's going to be hard to change over to rain this looks mostly Frozen from the Bronx North intensity now picking up

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