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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup.

Short-term model guidance is part and parcel of "nowcasting" IMO. Otherwise it's just called looking at radar loops. 

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2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute for this area. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup.

Nam looked good for nnj. 3k nam was a sleet fest. Gfs still has 2-3 as we flip to mod snow between 6-8pm 

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nam looked good for nnj. 3k nam was a sleet fest. Gfs still has 2-3 as we flip to mod snow between 6-8pm 

12z NAM is giving nnj only about 2 inches now while it gives parts of Long Island 3 inches. But yeah, GFS does look much better for our area. NAM, RGEM and HRRR give us only 1 to 2 inches here now though. A cutback from what they were showing last night and I find it odd that some models are now giving LI more snow than our area. Hopefully GFS is correct for us.

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39 minutes ago, wdrag said:

For what it's worth....  I've added the thermal profile for LGA from there 12z NAM. Some forecasters get concerned about Ice Pellets (IP) once the temp aloft nudges zero. In this case at about 22z, there is a modeled hint of IP  before upward motion and wet bulbing may cool the sounding enough to permit snow til about 0030z. The sfc temp may not be cold enough to support much if any additional accumulation after 00z. 

Also RGEM from the 12z run is slightly warmer aloft and seems like less qpf in NJ.

Hope am wrong about the warming aloft trends.

 

I've added the Sparta NJ hourly type for any forum members in nw NJ.  Hope it's right about only 1 hr IP.

 

Walt 1530z/18

 

 

 

 

 

 

Walt - I know you know a ton more about meteorology than I do, but I have a ton of knowledge about heat transfer/physical chemistry (PhD in chem eng'g) and I'd quibble with one point in your post.  Once there is a layer of frozen precip on the ground (and there will be) the 2M surface temp becomes largely irrelevant to whether falling snow will accumulate at the surface, since the "actual surface" is snow, which, by definition, has a maximum temp of 32F and can't ever get warmer than that (will melt at 32F).  If you're talking about bare paved surfaces (plowed or treated), then the actual surface will quickly warm to the 2M surface temp and further snow accumulations on the paved surfaces could be more difficult, unless, of course the falling snow rate exceeds the melting rate at the surface and with moderate snow or heavier, that will occur, as melting rates after dark at 33-34F should be <1/4" per hour.  

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Agreed - I like the ~6-8PM window for potential +SN in northern Queens/LI, Manhattan, CT and points north.

How far north? North and east or...?

Sorry I just never really know what metro area mets mean when they say that so I thought I'd see what you're thinking. There has always seemed to be more focus on N&W but that's almost always wrong for me and I'm ~55 miles due north of the Whitestone Bridge. 

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Just now, RU848789 said:

Didn't see anyone mention that, surprisingly, the NWS-NYC upped their snowfall forecast for NYC metro at 10 am. Not sure why, since there was no AFD update at the same time, but they did.  Here you go...

 

UCE2VlW.png

This would be my biggest this season 

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5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

How far north? North and east or...?

Sorry I just never really know what metro area mets mean when they say that so I thought I'd see what you're thinking. There has always seemed to be more focus on N&W but that's almost always wrong for me and I'm ~55 miles due north of the Whitestone Bridge. 

You're far enough north to see mostly snow before the dry slot moves in. Should do well up there.

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