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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


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VERY HIGH PRESSURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS

675  
ASUS41 KOKX 181414  
RWROKX  
 
REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
900 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2020  
 

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY
.  

 
NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-181500-
 
NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA  

 
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
 
CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 23 3 42 E8 30.53F WCI 14  
BRONX LEHMAN C N/A 23 5 46 SE5 N/A WCI 17  
LAGUARDIA ARPT CLOUDY 21 2 43 E7 30.53F WCI 12  
QUEENS COLLEGE N/A 21 5 49 NE8 N/A WCI 12  
KENNEDY INTL CLOUDY 22 5 48 E7 30.55F WCI 13  
BREEZY POINT N/A N/A N/A N/A NE7 N/A  
BROOKLYN COLL N/A 25 5 42 E6 N/A WCI 18  
STATEN ISLAND N/A 25 7 46 SE5 N/A WCI 19  
NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 23 3 42 E5 30.52F WCI 17  
TETERBORO CLOUDY 23 1 38 VRB3 30.52F  


 
 

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2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

I am seeing visibility’s of less than 1/4 mile on traffic cameras just west of Allentown right now.

Reading at 10 AM is reporting Heavy Snow

READING        HVY SNOW  21  18  88 S7        30.50R VSB 1/4 WCI  12    

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For what it's worth....  I've added the thermal profile for LGA from there 12z NAM. Some forecasters get concerned about Ice Pellets (IP) once the temp aloft nudges zero. In this case at about 22z, there is a modeled hint of IP  before upward motion and wet bulbing may cool the sounding enough to permit snow til about 0030z. The sfc temp may not be cold enough to support much if any additional accumulation after 00z. 

Also RGEM from the 12z run is slightly warmer aloft and seems like less qpf in NJ.

Hope am wrong about the warming aloft trends.

 

I've added the Sparta NJ hourly type for any forum members in nw NJ.  Hope it's right about only 1 hr IP.

 

Walt 1530z/18

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 10.23.18 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 10.19.16 AM.png

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The models unanimously weaken that fronto forcing between 700-500mb where the DGZ is, so if this is correct, +SN may not make it into the area this afternoon.

floop-rap-2020011814.500hvv.conus.gif.c40ecf72f1f1d6b33a86293a1885218c.gif

 

Yeah, looking likely that will weaken by the time it gets here.  We'll get some light to moderate stuff early, then main precip shield in that late afternoon/evening window.   

 

SE wind is helping to moisten the column a bit already though, it won't totally fizzle even if best fronto forcing is the west. 

 

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11 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The models unanimously weaken that fronto forcing between 700-500mb where the DGZ is, so if this is correct, +SN may not make it into the area this afternoon.

floop-rap-2020011814.500hvv.conus.gif.c40ecf72f1f1d6b33a86293a1885218c.gif

Hopefully the same the dry air helps us stay snow as the main slug comes in later this afternoon 

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1 minute ago, NittanyWx said:

Yeah, looking likely that will weaken by the time it gets here.  We'll get some light to moderate stuff early, then main precip shield in that late afternoon/evening window.   

SE wind is helping to moisten the column a bit already though, it won't totally fizzle even if best fronto forcing is the west. 

Agreed - I like the ~6-8PM window for potential +SN in northern Queens/LI, Manhattan, CT and points north.

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3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Isn't there a mix/rain risk at that time though?

Walt's post above addresses this. Parts of the 5 boroughs may see some mixing prior to going back to mdt/hvy snow, but I think this (mix/rain) is most likely in SI, BK, southern Queens/LI due to the rapidly increasing LLJ off the relatively milder ocean. For now most of the soundings support this scenario. 

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NAM and HRRR actually give Long Island more snow than northern Jersey now. Doesn't make much sense since LI was supposed to get less due to warming. Models have suddenly cut way back for my area, showing closer to 1 inch. Bad trends here at the last minute for this area. I know people say it doesn't matter because it's nowcasting time, but models are supposed to be more accurate the closer they get to an event. So they should be more accurate now than they were last night, but it's hard to believe LI could get more than northern NJ in this kind of setup.

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