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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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With lows in the teens tonight snow should stick immediately 

.TONIGHT...Clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow with a chance of rain in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches
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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

With lows in the teens tonight snow should stick immediately 


.TONIGHT...Clear this evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 14. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning, then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Snow with a chance of rain in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches

It sucks that the low is going to travel through the lakes. Its certainly cold enough now for a nice snow event .

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Kinda reminds me of 12/27/90. Were predicting 1 to 3 that morning before upgrading to 3 to 6. Ended up with close to 8 with a layer of freezing rain on top.  It was all gone within 48 hours 

Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9.

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Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me.

 

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Do you have the latest Mt. Holly NESmap? Because that Upton map looks like an increase of up to 2" by me.

 

79714FDA-E149-436D-AE9A-ED51C7705714.png

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35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not expecting a repeat but February 2008 had a nice over performing swfe. Forecast was for 2-4 which ended up being 6-9.

I was just thinking of that!  8 inches in SW Nassau and only changed to drizzle at the end.  Water temps are a lot colder in late Feb vs mid Jan though.

 

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2 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

Is it just me or does Upton seem pretty aggressive with 3-4 at JFK? I know it's a light south wind but that seems a bit optimistic no?

Sent from my Lenovo TB-X605F using Tapatalk
 

I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion

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Just now, Snow88 said:

Gfs?

I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion

This event is entirely dependent on how much precip falls.  As of now the temps outside of LI due to south flow aren’t a problem.  PSU you in the mid Atlantic forum has been nailing the QPF scenario all week with the storm based off the jet orientation.   If you look at the 18 GFS you could see why it produces more snow and QPF.  It has the 250kt jet oriented perfectly in a WSW orientation to break out snow across our area.  Meanwhile the NAM that 250kt jet core doesn't get going til after 21Z and a result by that time it’s warming up   

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I think it’s because It’s trending like a 3-6 inch snow event with basically ending as some drizzle or a shower. This is why they’ve upped the totals in my opinion
Still seems high for them. I can see northern areas of Manhattan/Bronx getting that.

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t pay attention to the GFS this close in, I like the mesos, the NAM and HRRR have actually done pretty good this winter, the RGEM, Euro have done very poorly as has the CMC. I think the UKMET has performed better so far, it was way too cold last winter though

I think you just pay attention to the models that show the least snow but correct me if I’m wrong that’s just my opinion!

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