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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t it silly to use the nam this far out? 

I don’t think so. I think that’s just a rumor that’s been around for a while. It’s showing pretty much what the 12z euro is showing. Also in the January 2015 storm NAM was right long range. But that’s just one example. Again, just my amateur weenie opinion.

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48 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I don’t think so. I think that’s just a rumor that’s been around for a while. It’s showing pretty much what the 12z euro is showing. Also in the January 2015 storm NAM was right long range. But that’s just one example. Again, just my amateur weenie opinion.

January 23rd 2016 

 

euro is exactly what I had in mind. Looks similar to the nam 18z

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11 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Which means like every other storm that you insist will lead to accumulations in NYC, there will be almost none. 

Come on man I’m not that bad am I? I know I give up late but that’s cause I’m a :weenie: 

I just have a good feeling this time for the rest of the winter.

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This is a tricky event because the south flow and position of the high.  Its definitely a case where EWR can see 6 and JFK 0 but sometimes here the southerly gradient is overestimated on models beyond 60-72 because what you end up with in the end is still a bit of a funky CAD type sig that sets up turning winds more ENE or forcing a lighter gradient than what the globals see a 3-4 days out

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

This is a tricky event because the south flow and position of the high.  Its definitely a case where EWR can see 6 and JFK 0 but sometimes here the southerly gradient is overestimated on models beyond 60-72 because what you end up with in the end is still a bit of a funky CAD type sig that sets up turning winds more ENE or forcing a lighter gradient than what the globals see a 3-4 days out

I think there is no way Newark gets 6 inches and jfk gets 0, sorry I disagree! I think that’s impossible!

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Come on man I’m not that bad am I? I know I give up late but that’s cause I’m a :weenie: 

I just have a good feeling this time for the rest of the winter.

I know we will turn the corner this week into winter well into March. Just that you are running with clown maps days in advance since November when NYC Ave high was 50 throwing out accumulations and arguing why with nothing but a way off clown map to back you. You become chicken little after awhile. I know you love snow but the board has to be somewhat fact grounded to prevent it from becoming unreadable. 

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14 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

I know we will turn the corner this week into winter well into March. Just that you are running with clown maps days in advance since November when NYC Ave high was 50 throwing out accumulations and arguing why with nothing but a way off clown map to back you. You become chicken little after awhile. I know you love snow but the board has to be somewhat fact grounded to prevent it from becoming unreadable. 

Okay I’m sorry if you guys feel that way

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11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Okay I’m sorry if you guys feel that way

I actually get a kick out of your posts. With the lack of big storms the past few years we've lost some of the nastier types, who couldn't tolerate any comment at all that wasn't discussing some model output. It made for tedious reading. Your posts are rarely tedious, I'll say that.

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Non event? Lol ok there buddy this is easily a 2 inch event for the city which would be the biggest for the city. Still far away though 

I think the upside for the city is about 2-3 inches,  I get where you are coming from in this winter that would be a huge event lol. However I'd say more likely about an inch for the city.

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3 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Newark is maybe 20 minutes north of me and yet there are many times it gets a few inches more

latitude sometimes really matters.  Recall 3/1 and 3/3 earlier this year, where most of us in northern Middlesex County got 9-11" of snow, combined (I got 10.5"), while folks 5-10 miles south in East Brunswick and Sayreville only got 2-4" of snow/sleet with some rain.  I even drove around the morning after one of those to see the gradient from Metuchen (5.5") to Highland Park (3") to New Brunswick (2") to East Brunswick (1").  

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5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

anyone have the late nite Euro ? or any other model , asking for some friends :clap:

The Euro backed off a bit on snowfall for the 95 corridor and towards the coast vs. the last couple of runs.  Interestingly, the NWS offices kind of flip-flopped with their forecast snowfall, with the Philly office decreasing snowfall vs. yesterday's forecast, while the NYC office upped the snowfall forecast a fair amount.  The two offices are moderately far apart at the boundaries between the offices (Passaic/Essex/Union/SI vs. Sussex/Morris/Somerset/Middlesex) - hopefully these discontinuities are cleared up before the event or someone will be wrong, lol.  

sn10_acc.us_city_nyc.png

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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