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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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57 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Disagree, this isn’t a storm coming in from the south where we thump ahead of a warm front, it’s a SWFE cutter.  Southerly winds get going early before the precip arrives.  The BL will warm quickly for anyone East of the Hudson River, decent chance it starts off as rain and may only go to White rain before we lose the dew point depression on the warm advection

Adamantly disagree with your limited assessment. 

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The south winds are a big problem.  That isn’t always the case because sometimes you can have a high in this location and an approaching system from the same area but the system is weaker and hence the gradient is light.  In mid to late January we could survive on a 5-7kt south flow and snow for awhile but not on a 15-25kt one.   

This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that

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9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This was always a 1-3 inch to all rain event for the metro area on Saturday, I’m not sure why it was hyped by some into anything more than that

Well for one your definition of the metro area is somewhat limited. There's a lot of us out here that live 40 miles and more north of the city that may get 6 inches out of this, for what's been going on the last four weeks that would be a major win.

If your just referring to the city and south I agree with you.

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42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain 

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

 

The SE ridge is gone on the backside of this. The 20th. This ushers in the change that has been spoken about. As far as this system these always warm on the coast as you get closer as the H slips NE. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

We’re not at the point yet where the SE ridge won’t be a big problem and storms won’t try to cut for the lakes. Maybe at the end of the month if the MJO helps. We have a decent airmass to start but the strong south winds will moderate that fast. I’m personally not in the mood for another slushy inch or two to a washout but it’s what the pattern supports. Often these trend more amped at the end anyway (and we’re nowhere near the end with this) 

Euro is more amped and north this run. Very little snow for the metro area and 1-3 north and west

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

reminds me of a storm last year on this same weekend-trended warmer and warmer right up to the event-got a sloppy inch here and then it rained moderately all day

If the pattern doesn't support snow then it won't happen. MJO 5/6 is a big SE ridge signal so we shouldn't be shocked it trended more amped.

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I never understood why anybody at the coast gets hyped for events like this. SWFE events without a true arctic airmass in place are pretty much non events for us coasties. 2-4 at best washed away by rain does nothing for me personally. It's been a winter of non events thus far.

Agree.  And it was not even a true arctic airmass.  Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble.  By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds

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16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.  And it was not even a true arctic airmass.  Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble.  By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds

This is clearly headed to a mostly all rain event even N and W of the city, if these trends continue it will be less than an inch of snow to all rain Saturday even N and W 

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18 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

Historically there is less than a 20 % chance of a White Christmas in NYC. Historically the first 6"snow in Boston is 1/18. You people whine like we should be buried since mid December. Climo clowns

We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far. 

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’re halfway through Met winter and NYC has under 3”. That’s well below average at this point-about one third of average in fact. By now Central Park should be at 8”. Islip is at 4.7” and should be at 8.8”. Bridgeport’s at 5.7” and should be at 9.2”. We still have a long way to go but it’s not whining to say it’s been a very lousy season so far. 

I have yet to take out a snow shovel or snow blower.   Big 5 gallon bucket of rock salt has been sitting in my garage untouched since Dec '18.    Feels like the 1980's have come back

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33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.  And it was not even a true arctic airmass.  Once this became slower and drier we were in trouble.  By the time precip gets here we are warmer with south winds

And it's going to be amped too. Bad track and marginal air mass. Pretty much a non event for a good chunk of us which is fine because in a way, I prefer mostly rain to washed away snow.

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