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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

In our good winters we’d barely bat an eye at this but this winter, a snow event enough to plow/shovel might as well be a hecs. 

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33 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lol, reading the thread you'd think the 12z GFS increased totals but instead it cut back a little. Anyway, locked and loaded for 2-4". Dewpoints look like they'll be our friend.

It was colder but decreased QPF and also has the boundary level warm at the coast however we know the GFS can get warm biased with the boundary layer. The setup the GFS is showing I think is a solid 3-6 inches at least for the Metro area. The fact the Euro is still way NW and more amped with the primary tells me the setup is still far from decided  

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's better than nothing. 

The Euro could be overdoing the amplification, it has a tendency to do so. 

On the other hand the MJO will be in phase 6 which tends to yield higher heights over us. 

I’d look for the SE ridge to be amplified, since models often underdo this ridge this far out, and it would cause more amplification. I don’t think it’s a deal killer for there to be a more amped primary low, we need the high north of us to anchor for a while and keep us cool enough for the initial burst of snow. We already know it won’t stay snow to the end. 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

We can’t have it that amped out in the Midwest. One thing to look for is how Chicago makes out. If they remain all snow it’s better for us. 

Absolutely incorrect. Completely different setups. Coastal snow will breakout with isentropic lift from advancing warm front running into a very decent CAD signature. Chicago is none of that.

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This isn’t going to be all snow. This is a fairly typical SWFE that will change over but hopefully with a strong enough high to make the front end be snow. 

This isn't a SWFE or gradient type system. 

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NWS Albany latest discussion on the storm. Right now looking pretty good 40-50 miles N and W of NYC.  

Active winter weather expected to return on Saturday, as a primary
cyclone is forecast to track from the Midwest to the lower Great
Lakes. Southerly flow and isentropic lift will increase in our area
ahead of the eastward advancing cyclone. Model guidance in fairly
good agreement with regards to the track/intensity of this system.
There is increasing probability for a moderate to heavy snowfall
across much if not the entire region, as both 12Z deterministic and
ensemble guidance support this trend. Guidance indicating a Miller
Type B system, with a secondary coastal cyclone developing Saturday
night near SE New England. At this time it appears most of the
precip in our area would be from the primary cyclone. With the
southerly flow regime at 925-850 mb, local research indicates the
maximum snowfall to set up across the southern Adirondacks, the
Glens Falls/Saratoga region and the southern Greens of VT. While
thermal profiles have shown a cooling trend, there could still be a
chance of mixing for areas SE of Albany Saturday night as thermal
profiles become borderline as the primary cyclone tracks just north
and west of our area. Still too early for specific snow accumulation
numbers, but will mention possibility of moderate to heavy snowfall
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
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