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January 17-18 Winter Storm


Snowstorms
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3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I see models are initializing weaker with the high than it actually is. For example 0z hrrr has a 1042mb high when it's actually 1047mb. Curious if that's why some of these models are warning surface temperatures too quick. Could be slower with a stronger departing high

Most guidance was around 1046/1047mb for 0z, so I wouldn't say they are really off much.

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1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

Taking this to the bank right now

6D96471E-CCCB-4387-A726-E84F851631EC.png

On the door step of this, the King, and we are complaining??  LOL.  Man, what a bunch of spoiled brats.  

Pertaining to the Northern Sub folks of course.  I"m at the southern edge of this and would gladly take half of it.  

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I think it is useful to look at that 12/1/07 storm for at least one thing. 

I went back and checked the obs at ORD, and they had like 7 hours of freezing rain.  There was fairly decent southeast sfc flow like there will be this time.  It was 28 when freezing rain began, so it took a number of hours to go from 28 to above 32.  Not that we're going to get a repeat outcome at ORD... that's not what I'm saying... but somebody farther south perhaps, depending on just how robust that warm layer aloft is and how much sleet cuts into the freezing rain time.

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2 hours ago, Chambana said:

Recap of this storm for Champaign 

1) Ice accretion early on Friday evening 

2) Saturday temps warm to the lower 40’s with 1.5” rainfall 

3) temps crash after precipitation ends causing flash freeze, with the cold snap on brown ground

4) the packers are in the NFC championship game

5) I hate this winter. It sucks. 

Every winter there sucks. I'm telling you, worst winter climate in North America. 

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think it's really going to be rate dependent tomorrow night for us.  Even moderate won't be enough to get it done past a certain time... will need heavy precip to have a shot.

Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts. 

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6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts. 

They did and im pretty irritated they went with a WWA and not watch TBH.

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7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Even my office calls this a very impressive WAA scenario as currently modeled. Admitting that the traditional method generates more than the going call. Also pretty much said they went low-end with amounts. 

The RGEM is nice but I am expecting it to be overdone on the southern end with some of those snow amounts.  For every time when warm air aloft underperforms, you can probably come up with 8 or 10 times where it doesn't.  So, planning on sig mixing/ice here and will be pretty surprised if it doesn't. 

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