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January 17-18 Winter Storm


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Northern extent of the 850 temps have trended south, over the past 24 hours, on the GFS. NAM 850s have started trending north. Feels like the WI/IL border will be a good compromise for northern extent of the 850s. 950 temps are slightly warmer. What that means for precip types, who knows.

 

gfs_T850_us_fh54_trend.thumb.gif.ea213a0fb7943c929e85b58b02ee4d86.gif

nam_T850_us_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.685349b6fe0e78cf41b2e7eb1b7362d8.gif

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Based on latest trends, I would seem to think 4-6" is a good call for the GTA. If a solution like the GFS pans out with warmer sfc temps then I'd lean closer to 4". However, a majority of the other models keep us below freezing and if that were to pan out, I wouldn't be surprised to see some localized amounts near 7-8". Still riding 4-6". 

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A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain.  However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint.  I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge.

On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight.

taint.png

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Just now, IWXwx said:

A little off-topic, but while the ORD/Southern MI crew sorts out the thermodynamics for "Winter Storm Jacob" (lol), it's almost a lock that from Friday afternoon through daybreak on Saturday an area through STL, HUF, IND, FWA, and TOL will see the proverbial kitchen sink of precipitation before turning to all rain.  However, on the map shown below from TT, their algorithm shows an unbelievable amount of snow in the highlighted area. I realize that it includes sleet and it is caused by taint.  I wish Tropical Tidbits would change this. My problem is the social media cowboys who will post this map as a forecast for pure sensationalism. Then it's up to someone in my position to talk to the public and government officials off of the ledge.

On a side note, it looks like for the FWA area, it will start as snow shortly after dark (when else?), and we may be able get a quick inch or two before the kitchen sink sets in until daylight.

taint.png

Agreed, someone should reach out to Levi...

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